Skip to main content
Log in

Consequentialist foundations for expected utility

  • Published:
Theory and Decision Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Behaviour norms are considered for decision trees which allow both objective probabilities and uncertain states of the world with unknown probabilities. Terminal nodes have consequences in a given domain. Behaviour is required to be consistent in subtrees. Consequentialist behaviour, by definition, reveals a consequence choice function independent of the structure of the decision tree. It implies that behaviour reveals a revealed preference ordering satisfying both the independence axiom and a novel form of sure-thing principle. Continuous consequentialist behaviour must be expected utility maximizing. Other plausible assumptions then imply additive utilities, subjective probabilities, and Bayes' rule.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Allais, M.: 1953, ‘Le comportement de l'homme rationnel devant le risque: critique des postulats et des axiomes de l'école américaine’, Econometrica 21, 503–546.

    Google Scholar 

  • Allais, M.: 1979, ‘The foundations of a positive theory of choice involving risk and a criticism of the postulates and axioms of the American school’, in The Expected Utility Hypothesis and the Allais Paradox, M. Allais and O. Hagen (eds.), 27–145. Dordrecht: D. Reidel.

    Google Scholar 

  • Anscombe, F. J. and R. J. Aumann: 1963, ‘A definition of subjective probability’, Annals of Mathematical Statistics 34, 199–205.

    Google Scholar 

  • Anscombe, G. E. M.: 1958, ‘Modern moral philosophy’, Philosophy 33, 1–19.

    Google Scholar 

  • Blume, L. E.: 1986, ‘Lexicographic refinements of Nash equilibrium’, Economics Discussion Paper, University of Michigan.

  • Brandenburger, A. and E. Dekel: 1986, ‘On an axiomatic approach to refinements of Nash equilibrium’, Economic Theory Discussion Paper No. 104, University of Cambridge.

  • Broome, J.: 1986, ‘Should a rational person conform to the sure-thing principle?’, presented at the 3rd International Conference on the Foundations and Applications of Utility, Risk and Decision Theories, Aix-en-Provence.

  • Brown, P. M.: 1976, ‘Conditionalization and expected utility’, Philosophy of Science 43, 415–419.

    Google Scholar 

  • Chipman, J. S.: 1960, ‘The foundations of utility’, Econometrica 28, 193–224.

    Google Scholar 

  • Dehez, P. and J. H. Drèze: 1982, ‘State-dependent utility, the demand for insurance and the value of safety’, in The Value of Life and Safety: Proceedings of a Conference Held by the ‘Geneva Association’, M. W. Jones-Lee (ed.), 41–65. Amsterdam: North-Holland.

    Google Scholar 

  • Diaconis, P.: 1978, Review of Shafer (1976), Journal of American Statistical Association 73, 677–678.

    Google Scholar 

  • Drèze, J. H.: 1958, ‘On the Identifiability of Subjective Probabilities and Cardinal Utilities’ (abstract), Econometrica 26, 319–320.

    Google Scholar 

  • Drèze, J. H.: 1961, ‘Les fondements logiques de l'utilité cardinale et de la probabilité subjective’, in La décision, Colloques Internationaux du CNRS (Paris), pp. 73–87.

  • Drèze, J. H.: 1962, ‘L'utilité sociale d'une vie humaine’, Revue française de recherche opérationnelle 6, 93–118.

    Google Scholar 

  • Drèze, J. H.: 1986, ‘Moral expectation with moral hazard’, in Contributions to Mathematical Economics in Honor of Gerard Debreu, W. Hildebrand and A. Mas-Colell (eds.), ch. 11, 187–204. Amsterdam: North-Holland.

    Google Scholar 

  • Drèze, J. H.: 1987, Essays on Economic Decisions under Uncertainty. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Ellsberg, D.: 1961, ‘Risk, ambiguity, and the Savage axioms’, Quarterly Journal of Economics 75, 643–669.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fishburn, P. C.: 1982, The Foundations of Expected Utility. Dordrecht: D. Reidel.

    Google Scholar 

  • Gärdenfors, P. and N.-E. Sahlin: 1982, ‘Unreliable probabilities, risk taking, and decision making’, Synthese 53, 361–386.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hacking, I.: 1967, ‘Slightly more realistic probability’, Philosophy of Science 34, 311–325.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hammond, P. J.: 1976, ‘Changing tastes and coherent dynamic choice’, Review of Economic Studies 43, 159–173.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hammond, P. J.: 1977, ‘Dynamic restrictions on metastatic choice’, Economica 44, 337–350.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hammond, P. J.: 1983, ‘Ex-post optimality as a dynamically consistent objective for collective choice under uncertainty’, in Social Choice and Welfare, P. K. Pattanaik and M. Salles (eds.), ch. 10, 175–205. Amsterdam: North-Holland.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hammond, P. J.: 1986, ‘Consequentialist social norms for public decisions’, in Social Choice and Public Decision Making: Essays in Honor of Kenneth J. Arrow, Vol. I, W. P. Heller, R. M. Starr and D. A. Starrett (eds.), ch. 1, 3–27. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hammond, P. J.: 1987a, ‘On reconciling Arrow's theory of social choice with Harsanyi's fundamental utilitarianism’, in Arrow and the Foundations of the Theory of Economic Policy, G. R. Feiwel (ed.), ch. 4, 179–222. London: Macmillan.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hammond, P. J.: 1987b, ‘Consequentialism and the independence axiom’, to appear in Munier (1987).

  • Harsanyi, J. C.: 1978, ‘Bayesian decision theory and utilitarian ethics’, American Economic Review, Papers and Proceedings 68, 223–228.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hausner, M.: 1954, ‘Multidimensional utilities’, in R. M. Thrall, C. H. Coombs and R. L. Davis (eds.), Decision Processes, ch. 12, 167–180. New York: John Wiley.

    Google Scholar 

  • Herstein, I. N. and J. Milnor: 1953, ‘An axiomatic approach to measurable utility’, Econometrica 21, 291–297.

    Google Scholar 

  • Johnsen, T. H. and J. B. Donaldson: 1985, ‘The structure of intertemporal preferences under uncertainty and time consistent plans’, Econometrica 53, 1451–1458.

    Google Scholar 

  • Karni, E. and Z. Safra: 1986, ‘Dynamic consistency in English auctions and expected utility theory’, mimeo.

  • Karni, E., Schmeidler, D. and K. Vind: 1983, ‘On state dependent preferences and subjec- tive probabilities’, Econometrica 51, 1021–1031.

    Google Scholar 

  • McClennen, E. F.: 1986, ‘Dynamic choice and rationality’, to appear in Munier (1987).

  • McClennen, E. F.: 1987, Rationality and Dynamic Choice: Foundational Explorations.

  • Morrison, D. G.: 1967, ‘On the consistency of preference in Allais' paradox’, Behavioral Science 12, 373–383.

    Google Scholar 

  • Munier, B.(ed.): 1987, Risk, Decision and Rationality: Proceedings of the 3rd International Conference on the Foundations and Applications of Utility, Risk and Decision Theories. Dordrecht: D. Reidel, forthcoming.

    Google Scholar 

  • Myerson, R. B.: 1979, ‘An axiomatic derivation of subjective probability, utility and evaluation functions’, Theory and Decision 11, 339–352.

    Google Scholar 

  • Raiffa, H.: 1961, ‘Risk, ambiguity, and the Savage axioms’, Quarterly Journal of Econom- ics 75, 690–694.

    Google Scholar 

  • Raiffa, H.: 1968, Decision Analysis: Introductory Lectures on Choices under Uncertainty. Reading, Mass.: Addison-Wesley.

    Google Scholar 

  • Samuelson, P. A.: 1952, ‘Probability, utility, and the independence axiom’, Econometrica 20, 670–678.

    Google Scholar 

  • Savage, L. J.: 1954, The Foundations of Statistics. New York: John Wiley.

    Google Scholar 

  • Sen, A. K. and B. Williams (eds.): 1982, Utilitarianism and Beyond. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Shafer, G.: 1976, A Mathematical Theory of Evidence. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Skala, H. J.: 1975, Non-Archimedean Utility Theory. Dordrecht: D. Reidel.

    Google Scholar 

  • Teller, P.: 1973, ‘Conditionalization and observation’, Synthese 26, 218–258.

    Google Scholar 

  • von Neumann, J. and O. Morgenstern: 1944, Theory of Games and Economic Behavior. Princeton: P.rinceton University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Weller, P. A.: 1978, ‘Consistent intertemporal decision making under uncertainty’, Review of Economic Studies 45, 263–266.

    Google Scholar 

  • Williams, B. A. O.: 1973, ‘A critique of utilitarianism’, in Utilitarianism for and against, J. J. C. Smart and B. A. O. Williams (eds.). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Williams, B.: 1985, Ethics and the Limits of Philosophy. London: Fontana Press/Collins.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wilson, R. B.: 1968, ‘The theory of syndicates’, Econometrica 36, 119–132.

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Hammond, P.J. Consequentialist foundations for expected utility. Theor Decis 25, 25–78 (1988). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00129168

Download citation

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00129168

Keywords

Navigation