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Why replication has more scientific value than original discovery

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  27 July 2018

John P. A. Ioannidis
John P. A. Ioannidis*
Affiliation:
Departments of Medicine, Health Research and Policy, and Biomedical Data Science, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, CA 94305; Department of Statistics, Stanford University School of Humanities and Sciences, 94305; Meta-Research Innovation Center at Stanford (METRICS), Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305. jioannid@stanford.eduhttps://profiles.stanford.edu/john-ioannidis
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Abstract

The presumed dominance of “original discovery” over replication is an anomaly. Original discovery has more value than replication primarily when scientific investigation can immediately generate numerous discoveries most of which are true and accurate. This scenario is uncommon. A model shows how original discovery claims typically have small or even negative value. Science becomes worthy mostly because of replication.

Type
Open Peer Commentary
Information
Behavioral and Brain Sciences , Volume 41 , 2018 , e137
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2018 

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