Hostname: page-component-848d4c4894-2pzkn Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-05-25T22:15:46.631Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

The Elusive Basis of Inferential Robustness

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 January 2022

Abstract

Robustness concepts are often invoked to manage two obstacles confronting models of ecological systems: complexity and uncertainty. The intuitive idea is that any result derived from many idealized but credible models is thereby made more reliable or is better confirmed. An appropriate basis for this inference has proven elusive. Here, several representations of robustness analysis are vetted, paying particular attention to complex models of ecosystems and the global climate. The claim that robustness is itself confirmatory because robustness analysis employs a Bayesian variety-of-evidence argument is criticized, but recent overwhelming pessimism about robustness may have a silver lining.

Type
Inference and Statistics
Copyright
Copyright © The Philosophy of Science Association

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

For helpful feedback, thanks to John Matthewson, Carl Salk, Jan Sprenger, and audiences at the Philosophy of Science Association Biennial Meeting at Montreal (November 2010) and the International Society for the History, Philosophy, and Social Studies of Biology at Salt Lake City (July 2011). Special thanks to Jan Sprenger for organizing the PSA session in which this article was presented.

References

Earman, John. 1992. Bayes or Bust? Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.Google Scholar
Fitelson, Branden. 2001. “A Bayesian Account of Independent Evidence with Applications.” Philosophy of Science 68:123–40.10.1086/392903CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Forber, Patrick. 2012. “Modeling Scientific Evidence: The Challenge of Specifying Likelihoods.” In EPSA Philosophy of Science: Amsterdam 2009, 5566. Dordrecht: Springer.Google Scholar
Franklin, Allan, and Howson, Colin. 1984. “Why Do Scientist Prefer to Vary Their Experiments?Studies in History and Philosophy of Science 15:5162.10.1016/0039-3681(84)90029-3CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Grimm, Volker, and Railsback, Steven. 2005. Individual-Based Modeling and Ecology. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.10.1515/9781400850624CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Levins, Richard. 1966. “The Strategy of Model Building in Population Biology.” American Scientist 54:421–31.Google Scholar
Levins, Richard. 1993. “A Response to Orzack and Sober: Formal Analysis and the Fluidity of Science.” Quarterly Review of Biology 68:547–55.10.1086/418302CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lloyd, Elizabeth. 2009. “Varieties of Support and Confirmation of Climate Models.” Proceedings of the Aristotelian Society 83:213–32.Google Scholar
Lloyd, Elizabeth. 2010. “Confirmation and Robustness of Climate Models.” Philosophy of Science 77:971–84.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Odenbaugh, Jay, and Alexandrova, Anna. 2011. “Buyer Beware: Robustness Analysis in Economics and Biology.” Biology and Philosophy 26:757–71.10.1007/s10539-011-9278-yCrossRefGoogle Scholar
Orzack, Steven, and Sober, Elliott. 1993. “A Critical Assessment of Levins's The Strategy of Model Building in Population Biology.Quarterly Review of Biology 68:533–46.10.1086/418301CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Parker, Wendy. 2006. “Understanding Pluralism in Climate Modeling.” Foundations of Science 11:349–68.10.1007/s10699-005-3196-xCrossRefGoogle Scholar
Parker, Wendy. 2009. “Confirmation and Adequacy-for-Purpose in Climate Modeling.” Proceedings of the Aristotelian Society 83:233–49.Google Scholar
Parker, Wendy. 2010. “Whose Probabilities? Predicting Climate Change with Ensembles of Models.” Philosophy of Science 77:985–97.10.1086/656815CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Parker, Wendy. 2011. “When Climate Models Agree: The Significance of Robust Model Predictions.” Philosophy of Science 78:579600.10.1086/661566CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sober, Elliott. 1993. “Mathematics and Indispensability.” Philosophical Review 102:3557.10.2307/2185652CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Trout, J. D. 1993. “Robustness and Integrative Survival in Significance Testing: The World's Contribution to Rationality.” British Journal for Philosophy of Science 44:115.10.1093/bjps/44.1.1CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Weisberg, Michael. 2006. “Robustness Analysis.” Philosophy of Science 73:730–42.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wimsatt, William. 1981/2007. “Robustness, Reliability, and Overdetermination.” In Re-engineering Philosophy for Limited Beings, 3774. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Winsberg, Eric. 2001. “Simulations, Models, and Theories: Complex Physical Systems and Their Representations.” Philosophy of Science 68 (Proceedings): S442S454.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Woodward, James. 2006. “Some Varieties of Robustness.” Journal of Economic Methodology 13:219–40.10.1080/13501780600733376CrossRefGoogle Scholar