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Old Evidence in the Development of Quantum Theory

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 January 2022

Molly Kao
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Abstract

In this article, I evaluate Hartmann and Fitelson’s solution to the Bayesian problem of old evidence by applying it to an early stage in the development of quantum theory. I argue that this case study suggests that whether old evidence is anomalous affects its support for a hypothesis. I introduce and defend two formal assumptions to accommodate this idea. This analysis not only explicates an important historical example, but it also shows that the given solution captures the intuitive importance of “surprising” evidence that has previously been problematic in the context of old evidence.

Type
Research Article
Information
Philosophy of Science , Volume 85 , Issue 1 , January 2018 , pp. 126 - 143
Copyright
Copyright © The Philosophy of Science Association

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Footnotes

†.

I am grateful to Samuel Fletcher, Richard Dawid, and Yann Benétreau-Dupin for helpful comments and discussions on earlier versions of this article. I would also like to thank two anonymous reviewers for their thoughtful suggestions.

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