Studies in Subjective ProbabilityHenry Ely Kyburg, Howard Edward Smokler Truth and probability; Foresight: its logical laws, its subjective sources; The bases of probability; Subjective probability as the measure of a non-measurable set; The elicitation of personal probabilities; Probability: beware of falsifications; Probable knowledge. |
Contents
ITS LOGICAL LAWS ITS SUBJECTIVE SOURCES | 53 |
THE BASES OF PROBABILITY | 119 |
SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY AS THE MEASURE | 133 |
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according application assertion axioms Bayesian bets bility Bruno de Finetti calculus of probability coherence conception condition consider consistency convex function corresponding Decision Theory defined definition degree of belief depend determined distribution function E₁ elicitation equally probable evaluation of probability example exchangeable events exchangeable random quantities experience experimental expressed fact false Finetti finite formal logic Foundations of Statistical frequency given hypothesis independent induction intuitive Journal judgment Keynes Kyburg L. J. Savage large numbers laws mathematical meaning measure objective observation opinion partial belief personal probabilities Philosophy of Science point of view possible precise prediction preference prob proba probabilità probability distribution probability theory problem proper scoring rules proposition question rational reason result Savage sense sequence simply statement Statistical Inference strictly convex subjective probability subjectivistic subjectivistic theory Suppes suppose theorem theory of probability tion trials true utility