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‘Oumuamua and meta-empirical confirmation

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Abstract

Astrophysicist Abraham Loeb suggests that the interstellar interloper 1I/2017 ‘Oumuamua, detected in our solar system in 2017, is alien space debris or even an alien operational probe (Bialy and Loeb 2018; Sheerin & Loeb 2020). Does this conjecture have significant epistemic support, such that it can be justified as a viable hypothesis? In this paper, I propose that the meta-empirical confirmation approach, developed and defended by philosopher and physicist Dawid (2006, 2013, 2018, 2019), provides an appropriate framework to answer this question. I defend this proposal by elucidating how meta-empirical confirmation applies to the ‘Oumuamua case and what specific meta-empirical arguments could support Loeb’s hypothesis. Even though Loeb would not himself endorse meta-empirical confirmation, because it is not traditional empiricism, this case shows that meta-empirical confirmation is not in fact a threat to empiricism.

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Notes

  1. It is possible to track the current location and the past trajectory of ‘Oumuamua here: https://spacein3d.com/asteroid-oumuamua-live-tracker/.

  2. This is, for instance, how astrophysicist Alan Fitzsimmons motivated his criticisms against LH in an interview by Kerry Sheridan: “Like most scientists, I would love there to be convincing evidence of alien life, but this isn’t it”. https://phys.org/news/2018-11-scientists-harvard-alien-spacecraft-theory.html.

  3. See previous footnote.

  4. Meta-empirical confirmation, as it is shown in the quotation below, was initially called by its founder, Richard Dawid, as ‘non-empirical’ because, in a narrow sense, it is based on evidence that is not empirical. However, he now prefers the label of ‘meta-empirical confirmation’ because, in a broad sense, it is based empirical evidence as it involves observations.

  5. More precisely, it does not check necessarily its truth. Indeed, in the case of observational objects, one may arguably claim that viability and truth conflate.

  6. I thank an anonymous referee for raising the first problem, and also for individuating some problems with the application of UEA.

  7. I would like to thank an anonymous referee for suggesting the following discussion in their review.

  8. See Loeb’s seminar (Loeb 2021d) “Are we the sharpest cookies in the jar?” given at the Center for Space and Habitability of the University of Bern, 26th May 2021. See also the interview conducted by Lee Billings, reported on Scientific American, 1st February 2021. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/astronomer-avi-loeb-says-aliens-have-visited-and-hes-not-kidding1/.

  9. For instance, they may be concerned about the application of meta-empirical confirmation to certain non-empirical scenarios, e.g., multiverse theories.

  10. A discussion on the distinction between epistemic reasons or arguments and strategic reasons or arguments can be found in Dawid (2019).

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Acknowledgments

This last version of the paper has been much improved thanks to the insightful and generous comments of two anonymous referees for this journal, and of Casey McCoy, who has also answered my numerous questions on meta-empirical confirmation. I am very grateful to Claus Beisbart, Mason Majszak, and the members of the Philosophy of Science Research Colloquium at the University of Bern for their very constructive criticisms and helpful suggestions on a previous version of this paper. Lastly, I thank Kevin Heng and the members of the CSH PhilScience group at the University of Bern for their supportive feedback on my work and for sharing invaluable information on ‘Oumuamua and the controversy surrounding its nature.

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  1. Center for Space and Habitability, The University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland

    Vera Matarese

  2. Institute of Philosophy, The University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland

    Vera Matarese

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Correspondence to Vera Matarese.

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Matarese, V. ‘Oumuamua and meta-empirical confirmation. Found Phys 52, 83 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10701-022-00587-5

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