Myrvold, Wayne C. (2012) Probabilities in Statistical Mechanics: What are they? [Preprint]

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Abstract

This paper addresses the question of how we should regard the probability distributions introduced into statistical mechanics. It will be argued that it is problematic to take them either as purely ontic, or purely epistemic. I will propose a third alternative: they are almost objective probabilities, or epistemic chances. The definition of such probabilities involves an interweaving of epistemic and physical considerations, and thus they cannot be classified as either purely epistemic or purely ontic. This conception, it will be argued, resolves some of the puzzles associated with statistical mechanical probabilities: it explains how probabilistic posits introduced on the basis of incomplete knowledge can yield testable predictions, and it also bypasses the problem of disastrous retrodictions, that is, the fact the standard equilibrium measures yield high probability of the system being in equilibrium in the recent past, even when we know otherwise. As the problem does not arise on the conception of probabilities considered here, there is no need to invoke a Past Hypothesis as a special posit to avoid it.

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Item Type:	Preprint
Creators:	Creators Email ORCID Myrvold, Wayne C. wmyrvold@uwo.ca
Keywords:	Statistical mechanics; thermodynamics; probability; chance; method of arbitrary functions.
Subjects:	Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics Specific Sciences > Physics > Statistical Mechanics/Thermodynamics
Depositing User:	Wayne Myrvold
Date Deposited:	17 Jul 2012 06:05
Last Modified:	17 Jul 2012 06:05
Item ID:	9236
Subjects:	Specific Sciences > Probability/Statistics Specific Sciences > Physics > Statistical Mechanics/Thermodynamics
Date:	July 2012
URI:	https://philsci-archive.pitt.edu/id/eprint/9236

Available Versions of this Item

• Probabilities in Statistical Mechanics: Subjective, Objective, or a Bit of Both? (deposited 01 Jun 2011 10:33)
  • Probabilities in Statistical Mechanics: What are they? (deposited 17 Jul 2012 06:05) [Currently Displayed]

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