Abstract
We advance a model of human probability judgment and apply it to the design of an extrapolation algorithm. Such an algorithm examines a person's judgment about the likelihood of various statements and is then able to predict the same person's judgments about new statements. The algorithm is tested against judgments produced by thirty undergraduates asked to assign probabilities to statements about mammals.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Bobrow, D. and Winograd, T.: 1977, ‘An overview of KRL, a knowledge representation langauge,Cognitive Science 1(1), 3–46.
Caramazza, A., Hersch, H. and Torgerson, W.: 1976, ‘Subjective structures and operations in semantic memory’,Journal of Verbal Learning and Verbal Behavior 15, 103–118.
Collins, A. and Loftus, E.: 1975, ‘A spreading activation theory of semantic processing’,Psychological Review 82, 407–428.
Heckerman, D.: 1990,Probabilistic Similarity Networks, Dissertation submitted to the program in Medical Information Sciences, Stanford University.
Heit, E. and Rubinstein, J.: 1992, ‘Similarity and property effects in inductive reasoning’, MS, University of Michigan, Department of Psychology.
Hempel, C.G.: 1966,Philosophy of Natural Science, Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice-Hall.
Horwich, P.: 1982,Probability and Evidence, New York: Cambridge University Press.
Howard, R. and Matheson, J.: 1984, ‘Influence diagrams’,In Howard R., and Matheson, J. (Eds.): 1984,Applications of Decision Analysis, Vol II, Strategic Decisions Group, Menlo Park, California.
Howson, C. and Urbach, P.: 1989,Scientific Reasoning: The Bayesian Approach, La Salle, IL: Open Court.
Hunter, D.: 1986, ‘Uncertain reasoning using maximum entropy inference;In Kanal, L. and Lemmer, J. (Eds.): 1986,Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence, Amsterdam: Elsevier.
Jaynes, E.: 1979, ‘Where do we stand on maximum entropy?In Levine, R. and Tribus, M. (Eds.): 1979,The Maximum Entropy Formalism, Cambridge: M.I.T. Press.
Kahneman, D., Slovic, P. and Tversky, A.: 1980,Judgment Under Uncertainty: Heuristics and Biases, New York: Cambridge University Press.
Klir, G.: 1988, ‘Methodological principles of uncertainty in inductive modeling: A new perspective,In Erickson, G. and Smith, C. (Eds.): 1988,Maximum Entropy and Bayesian Methods in Science and Engineering Vol. 1, Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers.
Lauritzen, S. and Spiegelhalter, D.: 1988, ‘Local computations with probabilities on graphical structures and their applications to expert systems’,Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B,50(2).
Malt, B. and Smith, E.E.: 1984, ‘Correlated properties in natural categories’,Journal of Verbal Learning and Verbal Behavior 23, 250–269.
Medin, D., Altom, M., Edelson, S., and Freko, D.: 1982, ‘Correlated symptoms and simulated medical diagnosis,Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning Memory, and Cognition 8, 37–50.
Medin, D.L. and Shoben, E.J.: 1988, ‘Context and structure in conceptual combination;Cognitive Psychology 20, 158–190.
Minsky, M.: 1981, ‘A framework for representing knowledge’,In Haugeland, J. (Ed.): 1981,Mind Design, Cambridge, MA: M.I.T. Press, pp. 95–128.
Minsky, M.: 1986,The Society of Mind, New York: Simon & Schuster.
Neapolitan, R.: 1990,Probabilistic Reasoning in Expert Systems, New York: Wiley.
Osherson, D.: 1987, ‘New axioms for the contrast model of similarity’,Journal of Mathematical Psychology 31(1), 93–103.
Osherson, D., Shafir, E. and Smith, E.: (in press) ‘Ampliative inference: On choosing a probability distribution,Cognition.
Osherson, D., Smith, E., Wilkie, O., López, A. and Shafir, E.: 1990, ‘Category based induction,Psychological Review 97(2), 185–200.
Osherson, D., Stern, J., Wilkie, O., Stob, M. and Smith, E.E.: 1991, ‘Default probability,Cognitive Science 15, 251–270.
Pearl, J.: 1988,Probabilistic Reasoning in Intelligent Systems: Networks of Plausible Inference, San Mateo, CA: Morgan-Kaufmann.
Press, W.H., Flannery, B.P., Teukolsky, S.A., and Vetterling, W.: 1988,Numerical Recipes in C, New York: Cambridge University Press.
Rips, L., Shoben, E. and Smith, E.E.: 1973, ‘Semantic distance and the verification of semantic relations’,Journal of Verbal Learning and Verbal Behavior 12, 1–20.
Rumelhart, D. and Ortony, A.: 1977, ‘The representation of knowledge in memory’,In Anderson, R., Spiro, R. and Montague, W. (Eds.): 1977,Schooling and the Acquisition of Knowledge, Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum.
Shafer, G. and Pearl, J. (Eds.): 1990,Readings in Uncertain Reasoning, San Mateo, CA: Morgan-Kauffmann.
Shafir, E., Smith, E.E. and Osherson, D.: 1990, ‘Typicality and reasoning fallacies’,Memory and Cognition 18(3), 229–239.
Smith, E.E., Shafir, E. and Osherson, D.: (in press), ‘Similarity, plausibility, and judgments of probability’,Cognition.
Smith, E.E. and Medin, D.: 1981,Categories and Concepts, Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.
Smith, E.E., Osherson, D.N. Rips, L.J. and Keane, M.: 1988, ‘Combining prototypes: A selective modification model’,Cognitive Science 12, 485–527.
Smith, E.E.: 1989, ‘Concepts and induction’,In Posner, M. (Eds.): 1989,Foundations of Cognitive Science, Cambridge, MA: M.I.T. Press, pp. 502–526.
Stern, Joshua: 1991,Similarity-Based Likelihood Judgment, M.I.T. Dissertation, Department of Brain and Cognitive Sciences.
Tversky, A.: 1977, ‘Features of similarity’,Psychological Review 84(4), 327–362.
Tversky, A. and Gati, I.: 1982, ‘Similarity, separability, and the triangle inequality’,Psychological Review 89(2), 123–154.
Tversky, A. and Kahneman, D.: 1983, ‘Extensional versus intuitive reasoning: The conjunction fallacy in probability judgment’,Psychological Review 90, 293–315.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Osherson, D., Smith, E.E., Myers, T.S. et al. Extrapolating human probability judgment. Theor Decis 36, 103–129 (1994). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01079209
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01079209