An Introduction to Decision TheoryThis introduction to decision theory offers comprehensive and accessible discussions of decision-making under ignorance and risk, the foundations of utility theory, the debate over subjective and objective probability, Bayesianism, causal decision theory, game theory, and social choice theory. No mathematical skills are assumed, and all concepts and results are explained in non-technical and intuitive as well as more formal ways. There are over 100 exercises with solutions, and a glossary of key terms and concepts. An emphasis on foundational aspects of normative decision theory (rather than descriptive decision theory) makes the book particularly useful for philosophy students, but it will appeal to readers in a range of disciplines including economics, psychology, political science and computer science. |
Contents
The decision matrix | 17 |
Decisions under ignorance | 40 |
Decisions under risk | 64 |
The mathematics of probability | 117 |
The philosophy of probability | 133 |
Why should we accept the preference axioms? | 164 |
Causal vs evidential decision theory | 187 |
Bayesian vs nonBayesian decision theory | 200 |
Basic concepts and zerosum games | 212 |
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Common terms and phrases
accept according actually agent alternative amount applying approach argument assign assume assumption axiom Bayesian beliefs better chance Chapter choice choose chosen claim coin completeness conclusion condition consider cooperate course decide decision maker decision problem decision theory definition discussed dominance equally equilibrium exactly example exists expected utility explained fact first follows formalisation Furthermore Gamble give given Hence holds Imagine important independence individual instance interpretation interval least lottery matrix matter maximising expected means measured normative Note objects offered option outcome pair paradox play players possible precise preference ordering Press principle probability proposed question rational reason represented risk rule scale seems sense simply social strategy subjective probability Suppose Table term theorem theorists ticket transitivity true units utility function