Coherently updating degrees of belief: Radical Probabilism, the generalization of Bayes' Theorem and its consequences on evidence evaluation

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Serval ID
serval:BIB_367A0AE88568
Type
Article: article from journal or magazin.
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Publications
Institution
Title
Coherently updating degrees of belief: Radical Probabilism, the generalization of Bayes' Theorem and its consequences on evidence evaluation
Journal
Law, Probability and Risk
Author(s)
Taroni Franco, Garbolino Paolo, Bozza Silvia
ISSN
1470-8396
1470-840X
Publication state
Published
Issued date
23/06/2021
Peer-reviewed
Oui
Volume
19
Number
3-4
Pages
293-316
Language
english
Abstract
The Bayesian perspective is based on conditioning related to reported evidence that is considered to be certain. What is called ‘Radical Probabilism’ replaces such an extreme view by introducing uncertainty on the reported evidence. How can such equivocal evidence be used in further inferences about a main hypothesis? The theoretical ground is introduced with the aim of offering to the readership an explanation for the generalization of the Bayes’ Theorem. This extension—that considers uncertainty related to the reporting of evidence—also has an impact on the assessment of the value of evidence through the Bayes’ factor. A generalization for such a logical measure of the evidence is also presented and justified.
Keywords
Philosophy, Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty, Law
Create date
12/10/2020 20:20
Last modification date
03/08/2022 7:09
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