Hostname: page-component-8448b6f56d-gtxcr Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-04-23T13:50:12.569Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Radical Probabilism Revisited

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 January 2022

Abstract

In this essay, I analyze and critique Richard Jeffrey's radical probabilism. The basic theses defining it are examined, particularly the idea that probabilistic coherence involves a kind of “consistency.” The main challenges to Jeffrey's view are (1) that there is an inconsistency between regarding probabilities as subjective and some probabilistic judgments as better than others, and (2) that decision theory so conceived has no normative import. I argue that both of these challenges can be met.

Type
In Memory of Richard Jeffrey
Copyright
Copyright © The Philosophy of Science Association

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

I thank my fellow participants on the panel, Brian Skyrms and Persi Diaconis, and especially Alan Hájek, as well as the audience. It was a splendid session and an honor to participate. Also, thanks to Brad Armendt for helpful lunchtime conversation before the presentation.

References

Diaconis, Persi, and Zabell, Sandy (1982), “Updating Subjective Probability,” Journal of the American Statistical Association 77:822830.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fishburn, Peter (1988), Nonlinear Preference and Utility Theory. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
Jeffrey, Richard (1983), The Logic of Decision. 2nd ed. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. 1st ed., 1965.Google Scholar
Jeffrey, Richard (1992), Probability and the Art of Judgment. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jeffrey, Richard (2004), Subjective Probability: The Real Thing. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Skyrms, Brian (1987), “Coherence,” in Rescher, N. (ed.), Scientific Inquiry in Philosophical Perspective. Pittsburgh: University of Pittsburgh Press, 225242.Google Scholar
van Fraassen, Bas (1980), “Rational Belief and Probability Kinematics,” Philosophy of Science 47:165187.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
van Fraassen, Bas (1984), “Belief and the Will,” Journal of Philosophy 81:235256.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wegner, Daniel (2002), The Illusion of Conscious Will. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar