Between Probability and Certainty: What Justifies Belief By Martin Smith [Book Review]

© The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Analysis Trust. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: [email protected] traditional picture of justification affirms the following: a belief is justified when it is sufficiently likely on one’s evidence. Over and against this well-received conception, Smith’s Between Probability and Certainty: What Justifies Belief develops an alternative: the normic support conception of justification. While likelihoods constitute the core feature of the risk minimization picture, the normic support conception replaces likelihoods with normalcy. The book offers a clear discussion of the shortcomings of the risk minimalization conception combined with an ambitious defence of the normic support conception.‘Normality’, according to Smith, is tied to our inclinations to look for further explanations: abnormal events require an explanation; normal events carry no such demand. For example, it is normal for someone to win the lottery. When we hear that...