Review of Symbolic Logic 8 (1):131-163 (2015)

Andrew Bacon
University of Southern California
In this paper I present a precise version of Stalnaker's thesis and show that it is both consistent and predicts our intuitive judgments about the probabilities of conditionals. The thesis states that someone whose total evidence is E should have the same credence in the proposition expressed by 'if A then B' in a context where E is salient as they have conditional credence in the proposition B expresses given the proposition A expresses in that context. The thesis is formalised rigorously and two models are provided that demonstrate that the new thesis is indeed tenable within a standard possible world semantics based on selection functions. Unlike the Stalnaker-Lewis semantics the selection functions cannot be understood in terms of similarity. A probabilistic account of selection is defended in its place. -/- I end the paper by suggesting that this approach overcomes some of the objections often leveled at accounts of indicatives based on the notion of similarity.
Keywords Stalnaker's Thesis  Conditionals  Indicatives  Conditional Probability  Adams' Thesis  Contextualism
Categories (categorize this paper)
DOI 10.1017/s1755020314000318
Edit this record
Mark as duplicate
Export citation
Find it on Scholar
Request removal from index
Revision history

Download options

Our Archive
External links

Setup an account with your affiliations in order to access resources via your University's proxy server
Configure custom proxy (use this if your affiliation does not provide a proxy)
Through your library

References found in this work BETA

On Conditionals.Dorothy Edgington - 1995 - Mind 104 (414):235-329.
Inquiry.Jon Barwise - 1986 - Philosophical Review 95 (3):429.
Indicative Conditionals.Robert Stalnaker - 1975 - Philosophia 5 (3):269-286.
Groupthink.Jeffrey Sanford Russell, John Hawthorne & Lara Buchak - 2015 - Philosophical Studies 172 (5):1287-1309.
Conditionals.Angelika Kratzer - 1986 - Chicago Linguistics Society 22 (2):1–15.

View all 22 references / Add more references

Citations of this work BETA

Evidence: A Guide for the Uncertain.Kevin Dorst - 2020 - Philosophy and Phenomenological Research 100 (3):586-632.
Holes in Spacetime: Some Neglected Essentials.Trevor Teitel - 2019 - Journal of Philosophy (7):353-389.
Abominable KK Failures.Kevin Dorst - 2019 - Mind 128 (512):1227-1259.
Conditional Probabilities.Kenny Easwaran - 2019 - In Richard Pettigrew & Jonathan Weisberg (eds.), The Open Handbook of Formal Epistemology. PhilPapers Foundation. pp. 131-198.

View all 14 citations / Add more citations

Similar books and articles


Added to PP index

Total views
405 ( #15,334 of 2,326,000 )

Recent downloads (6 months)
52 ( #11,420 of 2,326,000 )

How can I increase my downloads?


My notes