Behavioral and Brain Sciences 30 (3):241-254 (2007)
The phenomenon of base-rate neglect has elicited much debate. One arena of debate concerns how people make judgments under conditions of uncertainty. Another more controversial arena concerns human rationality. In this target article, we attempt to unpack the perspectives in the literature on both kinds of issues and evaluate their ability to explain existing data and their conceptual coherence. From this evaluation we conclude that the best account of the data should be framed in terms of a dual-process model of judgment, which attributes base-rate neglect to associative judgment strategies that fail to adequately represent the set structure of the problem. Base-rate neglect is reduced when problems are presented in a format that affords accurate representation in terms of nested sets of individuals
|Keywords||Base-rate neglect Bayesian reasoning dual process theory nested set hypothesis probability judgment|
|Categories||categorize this paper)|
References found in this work BETA
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Citations of this work BETA
Homo Heuristicus: Why Biased Minds Make Better Inferences.Gerd Gigerenzer & Henry Brighton - 2009 - Topics in Cognitive Science 1 (1):107-143.
Instruction in Information Structuring Improves Bayesian Judgment in Intelligence Analysts.David R. Mandel - 2015 - Frontiers in Psychology 6.
Subtracting “Ought” From “Is”: Descriptivism Versus Normativism in the Study of Human Thinking.Shira Elqayam & Jonathan Evans - 2011 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 34 (05):251-252.
Comprehension and Computation in Bayesian Problem Solving.Eric D. Johnson & Elisabet Tubau - 2015 - Frontiers in Psychology 6.
Analytic Cognitive Style Predicts Religious and Paranormal Belief.Gordon Pennycook, James Allan Cheyne, Paul Seli, Derek J. Koehler & Jonathan A. Fugelsang - 2012 - Cognition 123 (3):335-346.
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