Base-rate respect: From ecological rationality to dual processes

Behavioral and Brain Sciences 30 (3):241-254 (2007)
Abstract
The phenomenon of base-rate neglect has elicited much debate. One arena of debate concerns how people make judgments under conditions of uncertainty. Another more controversial arena concerns human rationality. In this target article, we attempt to unpack the perspectives in the literature on both kinds of issues and evaluate their ability to explain existing data and their conceptual coherence. From this evaluation we conclude that the best account of the data should be framed in terms of a dual-process model of judgment, which attributes base-rate neglect to associative judgment strategies that fail to adequately represent the set structure of the problem. Base-rate neglect is reduced when problems are presented in a format that affords accurate representation in terms of nested sets of individuals
Keywords Base-rate neglect   Bayesian reasoning   dual process theory   nested set hypothesis   probability judgment
Categories (categorize this paper)
DOI 10.1017/S0140525X07001653
Options
 Save to my reading list
Follow the author(s)
Edit this record
My bibliography
Export citation
Find it on Scholar
Mark as duplicate
Request removal from index
Revision history
Download options
Our Archive


Upload a copy of this paper     Check publisher's policy     Papers currently archived: 30,798
Through your library
References found in this work BETA
The Empirical Case for Two Systems of Reasoning.Steven A. Sloman - 1996 - Psychological Bulletin 119 (1):3-22.

View all 28 references / Add more references

Citations of this work BETA

View all 32 citations / Add more citations

Similar books and articles
Added to PP index
2009-01-28

Total downloads
42 ( #127,996 of 2,202,702 )

Recent downloads (6 months)
2 ( #149,904 of 2,202,702 )

How can I increase my downloads?

Monthly downloads
My notes
Sign in to use this feature