How long before superintelligence?

International Journal of Futures Studies 2 (1998)
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Abstract

_This paper outlines the case for believing that we will have superhuman artificial intelligence_ _within the first third of the next century. It looks at different estimates of the processing power of_ _the human brain; how long it will take until computer hardware achieve a similar performance;_ _ways of creating the software through bottom-up approaches like the one used by biological_ _brains; how difficult it will be for neuroscience figure out enough about how brains work to_ _make this approach work; and how fast we can expect superintelligence to be developed once_ _there is human-level artificial intelligence._

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Nick Bostrom
Oxford University

Citations of this work

The singularity: A philosophical analysis.David J. Chalmers - 2010 - Journal of Consciousness Studies 17 (9-10):9 - 10.
Are We Living in a Computer Simulation?Nick Bostrom - 2003 - Philosophical Quarterly 53 (211):243-255.
A history of transhumanist thought.Nick Bostrom - 2005 - Journal of Evolution and Technology 14 (1):1-25.

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