Climate Change Assessments: Confidence, Probability, and Decision

Philosophy of Science 84 (3):500–522 (2017)
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Abstract

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has developed a novel framework for assessing and communicating uncertainty in the findings published in their periodic assessment reports. But how should these uncertainty assessments inform decisions? We take a formal decision-making perspective to investigate how scientific input formulated in the IPCC’s novel framework might inform decisions in a principled way through a normative decision model.

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Author Profiles

Richard Bradley
London School of Economics
Casey Helgeson
Pennsylvania State University

References found in this work

A Treatise on Probability.John Maynard Keynes - 1921 - London, England: Dover Publications.
The Logic of Scientific Discovery.Karl Popper - 1959 - Studia Logica 9:262-265.
The Logic of Scientific Discovery.K. Popper - 1959 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 10 (37):55-57.
Risk, Uncertainty and Profit.Frank Knight - 1921 - University of Chicago Press.

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