Climate Change Assessments: Confidence, Probability, and Decision
Philosophy of Science 84 (3):500–522 (2017)
Abstract
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has developed a novel framework for assessing and communicating uncertainty in the findings published in their periodic assessment reports. But how should these uncertainty assessments inform decisions? We take a formal decision-making perspective to investigate how scientific input formulated in the IPCC’s novel framework might inform decisions in a principled way through a normative decision model.Author Profiles
DOI
10.1086/692145
My notes
Similar books and articles
Expert Judgment for Climate Change Adaptation.Erica Thompson, Roman Frigg & Casey Helgeson - 2016 - Philosophy of Science 83 (5):1110-1121.
Climate Simulations: Uncertain Projections for an Uncertain World.Rafaela Hillerbrand - 2014 - Journal for General Philosophy of Science / Zeitschrift für Allgemeine Wissenschaftstheorie 45 (1):17-32.
Making Climate Decisions.Richard Bradley & Katie Steele - 2015 - Philosophy Compass 10 (11):799-810.
Scientization: putting global climate change on the scientific agenda and the role of the IPCC. [REVIEW]Sarina Keller - 2010 - Poiesis and Praxis 7 (3):197-209.
The Anthropocene Project: Virtue in the Age of Climate Change.Byron Williston - 2015 - Oxford University Press UK.
Climate Projections and Uncertainty Communication.Susan L. Joslyn & Jared E. LeClerc - 2016 - Topics in Cognitive Science 8 (1):222-241.
Chasing down the climate change footprint of the public and private sectors: Forces converge - part I.Rosemary Lyster - manuscript
“Peer Review is Melting Our Glaciers”: What Led the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to Go Astray?Laszlo Kosolosky - 2015 - Journal for General Philosophy of Science / Zeitschrift für Allgemeine Wissenschaftstheorie 46 (2):351-366.
Climate Justice in a Non-Ideal World.Clare Heyward & Dominic Roser (eds.) - 2016 - Oxford University Press UK.
IPCC, 2007: Summary for Policymakers.D. Qin, Z. Chen, K. B. Averyt, H. L. Miller, S. Solomon, M. Manning, M. Marquis & M. Tignor - 2007 - In S. Solomon, D. Qin, M. Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K. B. Averyt, M. Tignor & H. L. Miller (eds.), Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press.
A Sampling Framework for Uncertainty in Individual Environmental Decisions.Mirta Galesic, Astrid Kause & Wolfgang Gaissmaier - 2016 - Topics in Cognitive Science 8 (1):242-258.
What range of future scenarios should climate policy be based on? Modal falsificationism and its limitations.Gregor Betz - 2009 - Philosophia Naturalis 46 (1):133-158.
An assessment of the foundational assumptions in high-resolution climate projections: the case of UKCP09.Roman Frigg, Leonard A. Smith & David A. Stainforth - unknown
In defence of the value free ideal.Gregor Betz - 2013 - European Journal for Philosophy of Science 3 (2):207-220.
Decision Making and Confidence Given Uncertain Advice.Michael D. Lee & Matthew J. Dry - 2006 - Cognitive Science 30 (6):1081-1095.
Analytics
Added to PP
2016-01-28
Downloads
1,008 (#7,278)
6 months
78 (#13,834)
2016-01-28
Downloads
1,008 (#7,278)
6 months
78 (#13,834)
Historical graph of downloads
Author Profiles
Citations of this work
Combining Probability with Qualitative Degree-of-Certainty Metrics in Assessment.Casey Helgeson, Richard Bradley & Brian Hill - 2018 - Climatic Change 149:517-525.
Tough enough? Robust satisficing as a decision norm for long-term policy analysis.Andreas L. Mogensen & David Thorstad - 2022 - Synthese 200 (1):1-26.
Conceptualizing uncertainty: the IPCC, model robustness and the weight of evidence.Margherita Harris - 2021 - Dissertation, London School of Economics
References found in this work
The Logic of Scientific Discovery.K. Popper - 1959 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 10 (37):55-57.