Climate Change Assessments: Confidence, Probability and Decision

Philosophy of Science 84 (3):500–522 (2017)

Authors
Richard Bradley
London School of Economics
Casey Helgeson
Pennsylvania State University
Abstract
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has developed a novel framework for assessing and communicating uncertainty in the findings published in their periodic assessment reports. But how should these uncertainty assessments inform decisions? We take a formal decision-making perspective to investigate how scientific input formulated in the IPCC’s novel framework might inform decisions in a principled way through a normative decision model.
Keywords Climate Change  Decision Making  Confidence  IPCC
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Reprint years 2017
DOI 10.1086/692145
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References found in this work BETA

The Logic of Scientific Discovery.Karl Popper - 1959 - Studia Logica 9:262-265.
Climate Matters.John Broome - 2012 - W. W. Norton.
A Treatise on Probability.John Maynard Keynes - 1921 - Journal of Philosophy 20 (11):301-306.

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