Abstract

Challenges like finite fossil fuels, impacts of climate change, and risks of nuclear energy require a transformation of energy systems which implies risks itself, e.g. technical or socio-economic risks or still unknown and unexpected surprises. Nevertheless, in order to follow the direction desired by the transformation, the question arises how the direction of the transformation processes of socio-technical energy systems can be influenced. Guiding orientation processes could represent such a possibility to give direction where desired directions are taken up with guiding concept ideas—understood as socially shared, views deemed simultaneously desired and feasible for the future—being specified together with selected addressees, spread and implemented. Next to the main question as to whether such GOPs can give direction for system innovations, we focused on factors supporting the effectiveness of these processes and on possibilities and limitations connected with their use. In order to answer these questions theoretically, we developed the three-level model differentiating guiding orientations into three levels and representing their relationship as an important content-related effectiveness factor, the definition of giving direction in the form of guiding orientation ideas and true guiding orientations and the phase model of an ideal GOP with its phases of triggering, specifying, spreading and implementing. Within our empirical studies, we analysed two GOPs with the guiding concept ideas of sustainable energy system respectively resilient energy system. Thereby, we could confirm that GOPs can direct system innovations if certain effectiveness factors are considered which we abstracted within our phase model.