When betting odds and credences come apart: More worries for dutch book arguments

Analysis 66 (290):119–127 (2006)
Abstract
If an agent believes that the probability of E being true is 1/2, should she accept a bet on E at even odds or better? Yes, but only given certain conditions. This paper is about what those conditions are. In particular, we think that there is a condition that has been overlooked so far in the literature. We discovered it in response to a paper by Hitchcock (2004) in which he argues for the 1/3 answer to the Sleeping Beauty problem. Hitchcock argues that this credence follows from calculating her fair betting odds, plus the assumption that Sleeping Beauty’s credences should track her fair betting odds. We will show that this last assumption is false. Sleeping Beauty’s credences should not follow her fair betting odds due to a peculiar feature of her epistemic situation.
Keywords Dutch books  Sleeping Beauty  Bayesian
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DOI 10.1111/j.1467-8284.2006.00598.x
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References found in this work BETA
Beauty and the Bets.Christopher Hitchcock - 2004 - Synthese 139 (3):405 - 420.
Defeating Dr. Evil with Self-Locating Belief.Adam Elga - 2004 - Philosophy and Phenomenological Research 69 (2):383–396.
Clever Bookies and Coherent Beliefs.David Christensen - 1991 - Philosophical Review 100 (2):229-247.
Philosophical Papers.Frank Plumpton Ramsey - 1925 - Cambridge University Press.
Two Principles of Bayesian Epistemology.W. J. Talbott - 1991 - Philosophical Studies 62 (2):135-150.

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Citations of this work BETA
Inertia, Optimism and Beauty.Patrick Hawley - 2013 - Noûs 47 (1):85-103.

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When Fair Betting Odds Are Not Degrees of Belief.T. Seidenfeld, M. J. Schervish & J. B. Kadane - 1990 - PSA: Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association 1990:517-524.

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