When betting odds and credences come apart: more worries for Dutch book arguments

Analysis 66 (2):119-127 (2006)
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Abstract

If an agent believes that the probability of E being true is 1/2, should she accept a bet on E at even odds or better? Yes, but only given certain conditions. This paper is about what those conditions are. In particular, we think that there is a condition that has been overlooked so far in the literature. We discovered it in response to a paper by Hitchcock (2004) in which he argues for the 1/3 answer to the Sleeping Beauty problem. Hitchcock argues that this credence follows from calculating her fair betting odds, plus the assumption that Sleeping Beauty’s credences should track her fair betting odds. We will show that this last assumption is false. Sleeping Beauty’s credences should not follow her fair betting odds due to a peculiar feature of her epistemic situation.

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Author Profiles

Hannes Leitgeb
Ludwig Maximilians Universität, München
Darren Bradley
University of Leeds

Citations of this work

Belief and certainty.Dylan Dodd - 2017 - Synthese 194 (11):4597-4621.
Dutch book arguments.Susan Vineberg - 2011 - Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy.

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References found in this work

Truth and probability.Frank Ramsey - 2010 - In Antony Eagle (ed.), Philosophy of Probability: Contemporary Readings. New York: Routledge. pp. 52-94.
Betting on Theories.Patrick Maher - 1993 - Cambridge, New York and Melbourne: Cambridge University Press.
Philosophical papers.Frank Plumpton Ramsey - 1925 - New York: Cambridge University Press. Edited by D. H. Mellor.
Sleeping beauty: Reply to Elga.David Lewis - 2001 - Analysis 61 (3):171–76.

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