Philosophy of Science 30 (4):359-369 (1963)
Certain predictions are such that their accuracy can be affected by their dissemination, by their being believed and acted upon. Examples of such reflexive predictions are presented. Various approaches to the precise delineation of this category of predictions are explored, and a definition is proposed and defended. Next it is asked whether the possible reflexivity of predictions creates a serious methodological problem for the social sciences. A distinction between causal and logical reflexivity helps support a negative answer. Finally, we consider the thesis that "this characteristic of predictions is peculiar to human affairs" (Merton), and an attempted rebuttal (Grunbaum). It is argued that Grunbaum's rebuttal is ineffective
|Keywords||No keywords specified (fix it)|
|Categories||categorize this paper)|
References found in this work BETA
No references found.
Citations of this work BETA
Game Theory and the Self-Fulfilling Climate Tragedy.Matthew Kopec - 2017 - Environmental Values 26 (2):203-221.
Contingent Eclecticism.Villy Søgaard - 2012 - Journal for the Theory of Social Behaviour 42 (1):20-39.
Introduction to Symposium on ‘Reflexivity and Economics: George Soros's Theory of Reflexivity and the Methodology of Economic Science’.D. Wade Hands - 2013 - Journal of Economic Methodology 20 (4):303-308.
Similar books and articles
A More Fulfilling (and Frustrating) Take on Reflexive Predictions.Matthew Kopec - 2011 - Philosophy of Science 78 (5):1249-1259.
Small Group Predictions on an Uncertain Outcome: The Effect of Nondiagnostic Information.George R. Young II, Kenneth H. Price & Cynthia Claybrook - 2001 - Theory and Decision 50 (2):149-167.
Falsifiable Predictions of Evolutionary Theory.Mary B. Williams - 1973 - Philosophy of Science 40 (4):518-537.
The Objectivity and Invariance of Quantum Predictions.Gordon N. Fleming - 1992 - PSA: Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association 1992:104 - 113.
Dynamics of Theory Change: The Role of Predictions.Stephen G. Brush - 1994 - PSA: Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association 1994:133 - 145.
Comments on Professor Roger Buck's Paper "Reflexive Predictions.".Adolf Grunbaum - 1963 - Philosophy of Science 30 (4):370 - 372.
Added to index2009-01-28
Total downloads36 ( #144,621 of 2,177,829 )
Recent downloads (6 months)1 ( #317,245 of 2,177,829 )
How can I increase my downloads?