Reflexive predictions

Philosophy of Science 30 (4):359-369 (1963)
Certain predictions are such that their accuracy can be affected by their dissemination, by their being believed and acted upon. Examples of such reflexive predictions are presented. Various approaches to the precise delineation of this category of predictions are explored, and a definition is proposed and defended. Next it is asked whether the possible reflexivity of predictions creates a serious methodological problem for the social sciences. A distinction between causal and logical reflexivity helps support a negative answer. Finally, we consider the thesis that "this characteristic of predictions is peculiar to human affairs" (Merton), and an attempted rebuttal (Grunbaum). It is argued that Grunbaum's rebuttal is ineffective
Keywords No keywords specified (fix it)
Categories (categorize this paper)
DOI 10.1086/287955
 Save to my reading list
Follow the author(s)
My bibliography
Export citation
Find it on Scholar
Edit this record
Mark as duplicate
Revision history
Request removal from index
Download options
Our Archive

Upload a copy of this paper     Check publisher's policy     Papers currently archived: 28,756
Through your library
References found in this work BETA

No references found.

Add more references

Citations of this work BETA
Game Theory and the Self-Fulfilling Climate Tragedy.Matthew Kopec - 2017 - Environmental Values 26 (2):203-221.
Contingent Eclecticism.Villy Søgaard - 2012 - Journal for the Theory of Social Behaviour 42 (1):20-39.

Add more citations

Similar books and articles
More on Reflexive Predictions.Mary K. Vetterling - 1976 - Philosophy of Science 43 (2):278-282.
Reflexive Predictions.George D. Romanos - 1973 - Philosophy of Science 40 (1):97-109.
Falsifiable Predictions of Evolutionary Theory.Mary B. Williams - 1973 - Philosophy of Science 40 (4):518-537.
The Objectivity and Invariance of Quantum Predictions.Gordon N. Fleming - 1992 - PSA: Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association 1992:104 - 113.
Dynamics of Theory Change: The Role of Predictions.Stephen G. Brush - 1994 - PSA: Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association 1994:133 - 145.

Monthly downloads

Added to index


Total downloads

36 ( #144,621 of 2,177,829 )

Recent downloads (6 months)

1 ( #317,245 of 2,177,829 )

How can I increase my downloads?

My notes
Sign in to use this feature

There  are no threads in this forum
Nothing in this forum yet.

Other forums