Probability Judgements about Indicative Conditionals: An Erotetic Theory

Logic Journal of the IGPL 24 (4) (2016)
  Copy   BIBTEX


Research into the cognition of conditionals has predominantly focused on conditional reasoning, producing a range of theories which explain associated phenomena with considerable success. However, such theories have been less successful in accommodating experimental data concerning how agents assess the probability of indicative conditionals. Since an acceptable account of conditional reasoning should be compatible with evidence regarding how we evaluate conditionals’ likelihoods, this constitutes a failing of such theories. Section 1 introduces the most dominant established approach to conditional reasoning: mental models theory. Surveying a range of experimental results, I show that mental models theory (along with competing theories) is incapable of fully accounting for findings regarding judgements about conditionals’ probabilities. Section 2 introduces an alternative account of deductive reasoning, the erotetic theory, recently proposed by Koralus and Mascarenhas (2013). Section 3 argues that, given a natural extension, this theory is able to explain the otherwise unaccounted for data.



    Upload a copy of this work     Papers currently archived: 83,948

External links

Setup an account with your affiliations in order to access resources via your University's proxy server

Through your library

Similar books and articles

The Probabilities of Conditionals Revisited.Igor Douven & Sara Verbrugge - 2013 - Cognitive Science 37 (4):711-730.
Betting on conditionals.Jean Baratgin, David E. Over & Guy Politzer - 2010 - Thinking and Reasoning 16 (3):172-197.
Against the Ramsey test.A. Morton - 2004 - Analysis 64 (4):294-299.
Indicative and subjunctive conditionals.Brian Weatherson - 2001 - Philosophical Quarterly 51 (203):200-216.
Conditionals, indeterminacy, and triviality.Justin Khoo - 2013 - Philosophical Perspectives 27 (1):260-287.
Defending a simple theory of conditionals.Adam Rieger - 2015 - American Philosophical Quarterly 52 (3):253-260.


Added to PP

54 (#239,270)

6 months
1 (#505,949)

Historical graph of downloads
How can I increase my downloads?

Author's Profile

Sam Carter
Australian Catholic University

Citations of this work

No citations found.

Add more citations