Journal of Biblical Literature 139 (3):591-596 (2020)

Authors
Nevin Climenhaga
Australian Catholic University
Abstract
Several scholars, including Martin Hengel, R. Alan Culpepper, and Richard Bauckham, have argued that Papias had knowledge of the Gospel of John on the grounds that Papias’s prologue lists six of Jesus’s disciples in the same order that they are named in the Gospel of John: Andrew, Peter, Philip, Thomas, James, and John. In “A Note on Papias’s Knowledge of the Fourth Gospel” (JBL 129 [2010]: 793–794), Jake H. O’Connell presents a statistical analysis of this argument, according to which the probability of this correspondence occurring by chance is lower than 1%. O’Connell concludes that it is more than 99% probable that this correspondence is the result of Papias copying John, rather than chance. I show that O’Connell’s analysis contains multiple mistakes, both substantive and mathematical: it ignores relevant evidence, overstates the correspondence between John and Papias, wrongly assumes that if Papias did not know John he ordered the disciples randomly, and conflates the probability of A given B with the probability of B given A. In discussing these errors, I aim to inform both Johannine scholarship and the use of probabilistic methods in historical reasoning.
Keywords Papias  Gospel of John  New Testament  Bayes' Theorem  Probability
Categories (categorize this paper)
Options
Edit this record
Mark as duplicate
Export citation
Find it on Scholar
Request removal from index
Revision history

Download options

PhilArchive copy

 PhilArchive page | Other versions
External links

Setup an account with your affiliations in order to access resources via your University's proxy server
Configure custom proxy (use this if your affiliation does not provide a proxy)
Through your library

References found in this work BETA

The Structure of Epistemic Probabilities.Nevin Climenhaga - 2020 - Philosophical Studies 177 (11):3213-3242.
Probability Theory. The Logic of Science.Edwin T. Jaynes - 2003 - Cambridge University Press: Cambridge.

Add more references

Citations of this work BETA

No citations found.

Add more citations

Similar books and articles

The Quest for the Church in the Gospel of John.R. Alan Culpepper - 2009 - Interpretation: A Journal of Bible and Theology 63 (4):341-354.
Zu den Glossen des Papias.Max Cohn - 1881 - Hermes 16 (2):316.
J. KÜRZINGER, Papias von Hierapolis. [REVIEW]N. Lohfink - 1983 - Theologie Und Philosophie 58 (4):580.
Papias and the Acts Of the Apostles.Fred C. Conybeare - 1895 - The Classical Review 9 (5):258-258.
Papias and the Acts Op the Apostles.Fred C. Conybeare - 1895 - The Classical Review 9 (05):258-.
Remarques sur le fragment de Papias cité par Irénée.J. -D. Dubois - 1991 - Revue D'Histoire Et de Philosophie Religieuses 71 (1):3-10.
Bayes's Theorem.E. Eells - 2008 - Gogoa 8 (1):138.
God’s Dice: Bayesian Probability and Providence.William R. Clough - 2015 - Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies 27 (1-2):4-24.

Analytics

Added to PP index
2021-01-28

Total views
190 ( #57,543 of 2,462,531 )

Recent downloads (6 months)
116 ( #5,417 of 2,462,531 )

How can I increase my downloads?

Downloads

My notes