When is an Ensemble like a Sample?

Synthese 200 (52):1-22 (2022)
  Copy   BIBTEX

Abstract

Climate scientists often apply statistical tools to a set of different estimates generated by an “ensemble” of models. In this paper, I argue that the resulting inferences are justified in the same way as any other statistical inference: what must be demonstrated is that the statistical model that licenses the inferences accurately represents the probabilistic relationship between data and target. This view of statistical practice is appropriately termed “model-based,” and I examine the use of statistics in climate fingerprinting to show how the difficulties that climate scientists encounter in applying statistics to ensemble-generated data are the practical difficulties of normal statistical practice. The upshot is that whether the application of statistics to ensemble-generated data yields trustworthy results should be expected to vary from case to case.

Links

PhilArchive

External links

Setup an account with your affiliations in order to access resources via your University's proxy server

Through your library

Similar books and articles

Du concept d'ensemble et du paradoxe d'ensemble des ensembles normaux.A. A. Zinoviev - 1971 - Revue Internationale de Philosophie 25 (4=98):508.
On Defining Climate and Climate Change.Charlotte Werndl - 2016 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 67 (2):337-364.
The wave function as a true ensemble.Jonte Hance & Sabine Hossenfelder - 2022 - Proceedings of the Royal Society 478 (2262).
Panpsychism and ensemble explanations.Han Li & Bradford Saad - 2022 - Philosophical Studies 179 (12):3583-3597.

Analytics

Added to PP
2023-09-09

Downloads
144 (#132,774)

6 months
80 (#63,716)

Historical graph of downloads
How can I increase my downloads?

Author's Profile

Corey Dethier
University of Minnesota

Citations of this work

Contrast Classes and Agreement in Climate Modeling.Corey Dethier - 2024 - European Journal for Philosophy of Science 14 (14):1-19.
Interpreting the Probabilistic Language in IPCC Reports.Corey Dethier - 2023 - Ergo: An Open Access Journal of Philosophy 10.

Add more citations