Episteme:1-26 (forthcoming)

Authors
Will Fleisher
Northeastern University
Abstract
Bayesian confirmation theory is our best formal framework for describing inductive reasoning. The problem of old evidence is a particularly difficult one for confirmation theory, because it suggests that this framework fails to account for central and important cases of inductive reasoning and scientific inference. I show that we can appeal to the fragmentation of doxastic states to solve this problem for confirmation theory. This fragmentation solution is independently well-motivated because of the success of fragmentation in solving other problems. I also argue that the fragmentation solution is preferable to other solutions to the problem of old evidence. These other solutions are already committed to something like fragmentation, but suffer from difficulties due to their additional commitments. If these arguments are successful, Bayesian confirmation theory is saved from the problem of old evidence, and the argument for fragmentation is bolstered by its ability to solve yet another problem.
Keywords Philosophy of Science  epistemology  Bayesianism  Bayesian confirmation theory  fragmentation  problem of old evidence
Categories (categorize this paper)
DOI 10.1017/epi.2020.51
Options
Edit this record
Mark as duplicate
Export citation
Find it on Scholar
Request removal from index
Revision history

Download options

PhilArchive copy

 PhilArchive page | Other versions
External links

Setup an account with your affiliations in order to access resources via your University's proxy server
Configure custom proxy (use this if your affiliation does not provide a proxy)
Through your library

References found in this work BETA

Accuracy and the Laws of Credence.Richard Pettigrew - 2016 - Oxford University Press UK.
Knowledge and Its Limits.Timothy Williamson - 2000 - Philosophy 76 (297):460-464.
Bayes or Bust?John Earman - 1992 - Bradford.

View all 61 references / Add more references

Citations of this work BETA

No citations found.

Add more citations

Similar books and articles

A Novel Solution to the Problem of Old Evidence.Jan Sprenger - 2015 - Philosophy of Science 82 (3):383-401.
The Problematic of Fragmentation [Special Issue].S. C. Yanchar & B. D. Slife - 2000 - Journal of Mind and Behavior 21 (3):235-242.
The Problematic of Fragmentation: An Hermeneutic Proposal.Stephen Yanchar & Brent Slife - 2000 - Journal of Mind and Behavior 21 (3):235-242.
Challenges to Bayesian Confirmation Theory.John D. Norton - 2011 - In Prasanta S. Bandyopadhyay & Malcolm R. Forster (eds.), Handbook of the Philosophy of Science, Vol. 7: Philosophy of Statistics. Elsevier B.V.. pp. 391-440.
Confirmation of Scientific Hypotheses as Relations.Aysel Dogan - 2005 - Journal for General Philosophy of Science / Zeitschrift für Allgemeine Wissenschaftstheorie 36 (2):243 - 259.
Confirmation of Scientific Hypotheses as Relations.Aysel Dogan - 2005 - Journal for General Philosophy of Science / Zeitschrift für Allgemeine Wissenschaftstheorie 36 (2):243-259.
Studies in Bayesian Confirmation Theory.Branden Fitelson - 2001 - Dissertation, University of Wisconsin, Madison
A Solution to a Problem for Bayesian Confirmation Theory.Richard Otte - 1994 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 45 (2):764-769.
What to Make of the Liberal Paradox?Mathias Risse - 2001 - Theory and Decision 50 (2):169-196.
Let Many Flowers Bloom.Raymond Martin - 2010 - History and Theory 49 (3):426-434.
Overcoming Fragmentation in Psychology: A Hermeneutic Approach.Frank Richardson - 2000 - Journal of Mind and Behavior 21 (3):289-305.

Analytics

Added to PP index
2021-02-24

Total views
86 ( #120,328 of 2,432,662 )

Recent downloads (6 months)
86 ( #7,825 of 2,432,662 )

How can I increase my downloads?

Downloads

My notes