Philosophy of Science 80 (5):886-897 (2013)
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| Abstract |
The United Kingdom Climate Impacts Program’s UKCP09 project makes high-resolution forecasts of climate during the 21st century using state of the art global climate models. The aim of this paper is to introduce and analyze the methodology used and then urge some caution. Given the acknowledged systematic errors in all current climate models, treating model outputs as decision relevant probabilistic forecasts can be seriously misleading. This casts doubt on our ability, today, to make trustworthy, high-resolution predictions out to the end of this century
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| DOI | 10.1086/673892 |
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References found in this work BETA
When Climate Models Agree: The Significance of Robust Model Predictions.Wendy S. Parker - 2011 - Philosophy of Science 78 (4):579-600.
Laplace’s Demon and the Adventures of His Apprentices.Roman Frigg, Seamus Bradley, Hailiang Du & Leonard A. Smith - 2014 - Philosophy of Science 81 (1):31-59.
The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change: How Do We Know We 'Re Not Wrong?'.Naomi Oreskes - 2007 - In Joseph F. DiMento & Pamela Doughman (eds.), Climate Change: What It Means for Us, Our Children, and Our Grandchildren. MIT Press. pp. 65.
Adaptation to Global Warming: Do Climate Models Tell Us What We Need to Know?Naomi Oreskes, David A. Stainforth & Leonard A. Smith - 2010 - Philosophy of Science 77 (5):1012-1028.
Citations of this work BETA
Why Simpler Computer Simulation Models Can Be Epistemically Better for Informing Decisions.Casey Helgeson, Vivek Srikrishnan, Klaus Keller & Nancy Tuana - 2021 - Philosophy of Science 88 (2):213-233.
Laplace’s Demon and the Adventures of His Apprentices.Roman Frigg, Seamus Bradley, Hailiang Du & Leonard A. Smith - 2014 - Philosophy of Science 81 (1):31-59.
Expert Judgment for Climate Change Adaptation.Erica Thompson, Roman Frigg & Casey Helgeson - 2016 - Philosophy of Science 83 (5):1110-1121.
Climate Change and Second-Order Uncertainty: Defending a Generalized, Normative, and Structural Argument From Inductive Risk.Daniel Steel - 2016 - Perspectives on Science 24 (6):696-721.
Are Climate Models Credible Worlds? Prospects and Limitations of Possibilistic Climate Prediction.Gregor Betz - 2015 - European Journal for Philosophy of Science 5 (2):191-215.
View all 22 citations / Add more citations
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