Causality, propensity, and bayesian networks

Synthese 132 (1-2):63 - 88 (2002)
  Copy   BIBTEX


This paper investigates the relations between causality and propensity. Aparticular version of the propensity theory of probability is introduced, and it is argued that propensities in this sense are not causes. Some conclusions regarding propensities can, however, be inferred from causal statements, but these hold only under restrictive conditions which prevent cause being defined in terms of propensity. The notion of a Bayesian propensity network is introduced, and the relations between such networks and causal networks is investigated. It is argued that causal networks cannot be identified with Bayesian propensity networks, but that causal networks can be a valuable heuristic guide for the construction of Bayesian propensity networks.



    Upload a copy of this work     Papers currently archived: 76,264

External links

Setup an account with your affiliations in order to access resources via your University's proxy server

Through your library

Similar books and articles


Added to PP

165 (#77,990)

6 months
3 (#225,457)

Historical graph of downloads
How can I increase my downloads?

Author's Profile

Donald Gillies
University College London

References found in this work

How the Laws of Physics Lie.Nancy Cartwright - 1983 - Oxford, England: Oxford University Press.
The Direction of Time.Hans Reichenbach - 1956 - Dover Publications.
Critique of Pure Reason.I. Kant - 1787/1998 - Philosophy 59 (230):555-557.
Causality.Judea Pearl - 2000 - Cambridge University Press.
The Logic of Scientific Discovery.Karl Popper - 1959 - Studia Logica 9:262-265.

View all 30 references / Add more references