A Probabilistic Analysis of Causation


Authors
Luke Fenton-Glynn
University College London
Abstract
The starting point in the development of probabilistic analyses of token causation has usually been the naïve intuition that, in some relevant sense, a cause raises the probability of its effect. But there are well-known examples both of non-probability-raising causation and of probability-raising non-causation. Sophisticated extant probabilistic analyses treat many such cases correctly, but only at the cost of excluding the possibilities of direct non-probability-raising causation, failures of causal transitivity, action-at-a-distance, prevention, and causation by absence and omission. I show that an examination of the structure of these problem cases suggests a different treatment, one which avoids the costs of extant probabilistic analyses
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DOI 10.1093/bjps/axq015
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References found in this work BETA

Causality.Judea Pearl - 2009 - Cambridge University Press.
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Citations of this work BETA

Actual Causation and Compositionality.Jonathan Livengood & Justin Sytsma - 2020 - Philosophy of Science 87 (1):43-69.
Determinism and the Method of Difference.Urs Hofmann & Michael Baumgartner - 2011 - Theoria : An International Journal for Theory, History and Fundations of Science 26 (2):155-176.

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