A Probabilistic Analysis of Causation

British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 62 (2):343-392 (2011)
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Abstract

The starting point in the development of probabilistic analyses of token causation has usually been the naïve intuition that, in some relevant sense, a cause raises the probability of its effect. But there are well-known examples both of non-probability-raising causation and of probability-raising non-causation. Sophisticated extant probabilistic analyses treat many such cases correctly, but only at the cost of excluding the possibilities of direct non-probability-raising causation, failures of causal transitivity, action-at-a-distance, prevention, and causation by absence and omission. I show that an examination of the structure of these problem cases suggests a different treatment, one which avoids the costs of extant probabilistic analyses

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Luke Fenton-Glynn
University College London

Citations of this work

Counterfactual theories of causation.Peter Menzies - 2008 - Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy.
Probabilistic causation.Christopher Hitchcock - 2008 - Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy.
Actual Causation and Compositionality.Jonathan Livengood & Justin Sytsma - 2020 - Philosophy of Science 87 (1):43-69.

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References found in this work

The direction of time.Hans Reichenbach - 1956 - Mineola, N.Y.: Dover Publications. Edited by Maria Reichenbach.
Causality.Judea Pearl - 2000 - New York: Cambridge University Press.
Scorekeeping in a language game.David Lewis - 1979 - Journal of Philosophical Logic 8 (1):339--359.

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