A Trap at the Escape from the Trap? Some Demographic Structural Factors of Political Instability in Modernizing Social Systems

In History & Mathematics: Trends and Cycles. Volgograd, Russia: Uchitel Publishing House. pp. 201-267 (2014)

Authors
Leonid Grinin
National Research University Higher School of Economics
Abstract
The escape from the ‘Malthusian trap’ is shown to tend to generate in a rather systematic way quite serious political upheavals. Some demographic structural mechanisms that generate such upheavals have been analyzed, which has made it possible to develop a mathematical model of the respective processes. The forecast of political instability in Sub-Saharan African countries in 2015– 2050 produced on the basis of this model is presented.
Keywords modernization  instability  youth bulge  demographic dynamics  political dynamics
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References found in this work BETA

Secular Cycles.Peter Turchin & Sergey A. Nefedov - 2009 - Princeton University Press.

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Citations of this work BETA

Economic Cycles, Crises, and the Global Periphery.Leonid Grinin, Arno Tausch & Andrey Korotayev (eds.) - 2016 - Switzerland: Springer International Publishing Switzerland.

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