In History & Mathematics: Trends and Cycles. Volgograd, Russia: Uchitel Publishing House. pp. 201-267 (2014)
| Authors |
|
| Abstract |
The escape from the ‘Malthusian trap’ is shown to tend to generate in a rather
systematic way quite serious political upheavals. Some demographic structural
mechanisms that generate such upheavals have been analyzed, which has made
it possible to develop a mathematical model of the respective processes.
The forecast of political instability in Sub-Saharan African countries in 2015–
2050 produced on the basis of this model is presented.
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| Keywords | modernization instability youth bulge demographic dynamics political dynamics |
| Categories | (categorize this paper) |
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References found in this work BETA
Does “Arab Spring” Mean The Beginning Of World System Reconfiguration?Leonid Grinin & Andrey Korotayev - 2012 - World Futures 68 (7):471 - 505.
Urbanization and Political Instability: To the Working Out Mathematical Models of Political Processes.L. E. Grinin & A. V. Korotayev - 2009 - Polis 4:34-52.
Citations of this work BETA
Economic Cycles, Crises, and the Global Periphery.Leonid Grinin, Arno Tausch & Andrey Korotayev (eds.) - 2016 - Switzerland: Springer International Publishing Switzerland.
Globalistics and Globalization Studies: Global Transformations and Global Future.Leonid Grinin, Ilya Illin, Andrey Korotayev & Peter Herrmann - 2016 - Volgograd, Russia: Uchitel Publishing House.
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