In Endre Kiss & Arisztotelész Kiadó (eds.), The Dialectics of Modernity - Recognizing Globalization. Studies on the Theoretical Perspectives of Globalization. Budapest: Publisherhouse Arostotelész. pp. 184-207 (2014)

Authors
Leonid Grinin
National Research University Higher School of Economics
Abstract
The article offers forecasts of the geopolitical and geo-economic development of the world in the forthcoming decades. One of the main accusations directed toward globalization is that it deepens the gap between the developed and developing countries dooming them to eternal backwardness. The article demonstrates that the actual situation is very different. It is shown that this is due to the globalization that the developing countries are generally growing much faster than the developed states, the World System core starts weakening and its periphery begins to strengthen. At the same time there is a continuing divergence between the main bulk of developing countries and the group of the poorest developing states. The article also explains why the globalization was bound to lead to the explosive rise of many developing countries and the relative weakening of the developed economies. In the forthcoming decades this trend is likely to continue (though, of course, not without certain interruptions). It is also demonstrated that this convergence constitutes a necessary condition for the next technological breakthrough.
Keywords developed countries  developing countries  the World System  core  periphery  balance of power  weakening of the USA  global middle class
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Economic Cycles, Crises, and the Global Periphery.Leonid Grinin, Arno Tausch & Andrey Korotayev (eds.) - 2016 - Switzerland: Springer International Publishing Switzerland.
The MANBRIC-Technologies in the Forthcoming Technological Revolution.Leonid Grinin, Anton Grinin & Andrey Korotayev - 2017 - Industry 4.0 - Entrepreneurship and Structural Change in the New Digital Landscape: What is Coming on Along with the Fourth Industrial Revolution:243-261.

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