In Leonid Grinin, Ilya V. Ilyin & Andrey V. Korotayev (eds.), Globalistics and Globalization Studies. Volgograd: Uchitel Publishing House. pp. 184-208 (2014)

Leonid Grinin
National Research University Higher School of Economics
In the coming decades in the process of globalization the position of the USA and Europe will weaken, while the role of developing countries will increase. The role of the two largest emerging economies – China and India – will be of special significance. What future will these fast-growing giants face? The demographers agree that pretty soon India will lead the world in population and thus surpass China, while China will encounter serious population ageing. But economic and political scenarios of the future are quite different: from resounding success and world leadership to collapse caused by demographic and socio-political troubles. Which of them is more feasible? In the present article I analyze the Chinese and Indian development models separately and comparatively and make prognosis of their perspectives in the twenty-first century. Such an analysis could be helpful for understanding Russia's ways of development.
Keywords China  India  Chinese model  Indian model  emerging economies  democracy  authoritarianism
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Macrohistory and Globalization.Leonid Grinin - 2012 - Uchitel Publishing House.
State and Socio-Political Crises in the Process of Modernization.Leonid Grinin - 2013 - Social Evolution and History 12 (2):35-76.

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