Climatic Change 149:517-525 (2018)

Authors
Richard Bradley
London School of Economics
Casey Helgeson
Pennsylvania State University
Abstract
Reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) employ an evolving framework of calibrated language for assessing and communicating degrees of certainty in findings. A persistent challenge for this framework has been ambiguity in the relationship between multiple degree-of-certainty metrics. We aim to clarify the relationship between the likelihood and confidence metrics used in the Fifth Assessment Report (2013), with benefits for mathematical consistency among multiple findings and for usability in downstream modeling and decision analysis. We discuss how our proposal meshes with current and proposed practice in IPCC uncertainty assessment.
Keywords environmental assessment  uncertainty  expert judgment  science for policy
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References found in this work BETA

Decision Theory with a Human Face.Richard Bradley - 2017 - Cambridge University Press.
A Treatise on Probability.Clarence Irving Lewis - 1922 - Philosophical Review 31 (2):180.
False Precision, Surprise and Improved Uncertainty Assessment.Wendy S. Parker & James S. Risbey - 2015 - Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A 373 (2055):20140453.

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