Theory and Decision 80 (3):363-387 (2016)

Abstract
In this paper, we use an experimental design to compare the performance of elicitation rules for subjective beliefs. Contrary to previous works in which elicited beliefs are compared to an objective benchmark, we consider a purely subjective belief framework. The performance of different elicitation rules is assessed according to the accuracy of stated beliefs in predicting success. We measure this accuracy using two main factors: calibration and discrimination. For each of them, we propose two statistical indexes and we compare the rules’ performances for each measurement. The matching probability method provides more accurate beliefs in terms of discrimination, while the quadratic scoring rule reduces overconfidence and the free rule, a simple rule with no incentives, which succeeds in eliciting accurate beliefs. Nevertheless, the matching probability appears to be the best mechanism for eliciting beliefs due to its performances in terms of calibration and discrimination, but also its ability to elicit consistent beliefs across measures and across tasks, as well as its empirical and theoretical properties.
Keywords No keywords specified (fix it)
Categories (categorize this paper)
ISBN(s)
DOI 10.1007/s11238-015-9509-9
Options
Edit this record
Mark as duplicate
Export citation
Find it on Scholar
Request removal from index
Revision history

Download options

PhilArchive copy


Upload a copy of this paper     Check publisher's policy     Papers currently archived: 55,935
External links

Setup an account with your affiliations in order to access resources via your University's proxy server
Configure custom proxy (use this if your affiliation does not provide a proxy)
Through your library

References found in this work BETA

Confidence in Judgment.Nigel Harvey - 1997 - Trends in Cognitive Sciences 1 (2):78-82.

Add more references

Citations of this work BETA

Add more citations

Similar books and articles

Subjective Probability Estimates and Confidence Ratings.Lee R. Beach & James A. Wise - 1969 - Journal of Experimental Psychology 79 (3p1):438.
Some Notes on Probability and Confidence.Paul Ryl - 1987 - Dissertation, The University of New Mexico
Three Prepositional Calculi of Probability.Herman Dishkant - 1980 - Studia Logica 39 (1):49 - 61.
Comments on Quantum Probability Theory.Steven Sloman - 2014 - Topics in Cognitive Science 6 (1):47-52.

Analytics

Added to PP index
2015-07-11

Total views
31 ( #330,610 of 2,403,076 )

Recent downloads (6 months)
3 ( #257,414 of 2,403,076 )

How can I increase my downloads?

Downloads

My notes