How many laypeople holding a popular opinion are needed to counter an expert opinion?

Thinking and Reasoning 24 (1):117-128 (2018)
  Copy   BIBTEX

Abstract

ABSTRACTIn everyday situations, people regularly receive information from large groups of people and from single experts. Although lay opinions and expert opinions have been studied extensively in isolation, the present study examined the relationship between the two by asking how many laypeople are needed to counter an expert opinion. A Bayesian formalisation allowed the prescription of this quantity. Participants were subsequently asked to assess how many laypeople are needed in different situations. The results demonstrate that people are sensitive to the relevant factors identified for determining how many lay opinions are required to counteract a single expert opinion. People's assessments were fairly good in line with Bayesian predictions.

Links

PhilArchive



    Upload a copy of this work     Papers currently archived: 76,168

External links

Setup an account with your affiliations in order to access resources via your University's proxy server

Through your library

Similar books and articles

Experts in Uncertainty: Opinion and Subjective Probability in Science.Roger M. Cooke (ed.) - 1991 - Oxford, England: Oxford University Press.
Mizrahi and Seidel: Experts in Confusion.Martin David Hinton - 2015 - Informal Logic 35 (4):539-554.
On a razor's edge: evaluating arguments from expert opinion.Douglas Walton - 2014 - Argument and Computation 5 (2-3):139-159.
Expertise and public ignorance.Evan M. Selinger - 2003 - Critical Review: A Journal of Politics and Society 15 (3-4):375-386.
Risk Assessment and Uncertainty.Kristin Shrader-Frechette - 1988 - PSA: Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association 1988:504 - 517.
Putting experts in their place.Paul J. Quirk - 2008 - Critical Review: A Journal of Politics and Society 20 (3):333-357.

Analytics

Added to PP
2017-09-23

Downloads
50 (#236,452)

6 months
1 (#448,551)

Historical graph of downloads
How can I increase my downloads?