Finite additivity, another lottery paradox and conditionalisation

Synthese 191 (5):1-24 (2014)
  Copy   BIBTEX


In this paper I argue that de Finetti provided compelling reasons for rejecting countable additivity. It is ironical therefore that the main argument advanced by Bayesians against following his recommendation is based on the consistency criterion, coherence, he himself developed. I will show that this argument is mistaken. Nevertheless, there remain some counter-intuitive consequences of rejecting countable additivity, and one in particular has all the appearances of a full-blown paradox. I will end by arguing that in fact it is no paradox, and that what it shows is that conditionalisation, often claimed to be integral to the Bayesian canon, has to be rejected as a general rule in a finitely additive environment



    Upload a copy of this work     Papers currently archived: 77,805

External links

Setup an account with your affiliations in order to access resources via your University's proxy server

Through your library

Similar books and articles

De finetti, countable additivity, consistency and coherence.Colin Howson - 2008 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 59 (1):1-23.
Countable additivity and the de finetti lottery.Paul Bartha - 2004 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 55 (2):301-321.
Why Countable Additivity?Kenny Easwaran - 2013 - Thought: A Journal of Philosophy 2 (1):53-61.
Countable additivity and subjective probability.Jon Williamson - 1999 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 50 (3):401-416.
Fair infinite lotteries.Sylvia Wenmackers & Leon Horsten - 2013 - Synthese 190 (1):37-61.
Realism, Convergence, and Additivity.Cory Juhl & Kevin T. Kelly - 1994 - PSA: Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association 1994:181 - 189.
Possibility and probability.Isaac Levi - 1989 - Erkenntnis 31 (2-3):365--86.


Added to PP

101 (#127,593)

6 months
1 (#482,368)

Historical graph of downloads
How can I increase my downloads?

Author's Profile

Colin Howson
Last affiliation: London School of Economics