Subjective Probability as Sampling Propensity


Authors
Thomas Icard
Stanford University
Abstract
Subjective probability plays an increasingly important role in many fields concerned with human cognition and behavior. Yet there have been significant criticisms of the idea that probabilities could actually be represented in the mind. This paper presents and elaborates a view of subjective probability as a kind of sampling propensity associated with internally represented generative models. The resulting view answers to some of the most well known criticisms of subjective probability, and is also supported by empirical work in neuroscience and behavioral psychology. The repercussions of the view for how we conceive of many ordinary instances of subjective probability, and how it relates to more traditional conceptions of subjective probability, are discussed in some detail.
Keywords No keywords specified (fix it)
Categories (categorize this paper)
ISBN(s)
DOI 10.1007/s13164-015-0283-y
Options
Edit this record
Mark as duplicate
Export citation
Find it on Scholar
Request removal from index
Revision history

Download options

Our Archive
External links

Setup an account with your affiliations in order to access resources via your University's proxy server
Configure custom proxy (use this if your affiliation does not provide a proxy)
Through your library

References found in this work BETA

Vison.David Marr - 1982 - W. H. Freeman.
Alief and Belief.Tamar Szabó Gendler - 2008 - Journal of Philosophy 105 (10):634-663.
Perceptual Symbol Systems.Lawrence W. Barsalou - 1999 - Behavioral and Brain Sciences 22 (4):577-660.
The Principles of Psychology.William James - 1890 - Dover Publications.

View all 63 references / Add more references

Citations of this work BETA

Character and Theory of Mind: An Integrative Approach.Evan Westra - 2018 - Philosophical Studies 175 (5):1217-1241.
Delusional Predictions and Explanations.Matthew Parrott - forthcoming - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science:axz003.

Add more citations

Similar books and articles

Interpretations of Probability.Weimin Sun - 2003 - Dissertation, The University of Connecticut
Factors Which Influence Subjective Probability.S. S. Komorita - 1959 - Journal of Experimental Psychology 58 (5):386.
Probability, Objectivity, and Induction.Arnold Baise - 2013 - Journal of Ayn Rand Studies 13 (2):81-95.
Foundations of Probability.Rachael Briggs - 2015 - Journal of Philosophical Logic 44 (6):625-640.
Physical Probabilities.Peter Milne - 1987 - Synthese 73 (2):329 - 359.

Analytics

Added to PP index
2015-08-21

Total views
1,258 ( #1,586 of 2,253,661 )

Recent downloads (6 months)
264 ( #1,400 of 2,253,661 )

How can I increase my downloads?

Downloads

My notes

Sign in to use this feature