Alistair Isaac
University of Edinburgh
A question at the intersection of scientific modeling and public choice is how to deal with uncertainty about model predictions. This "high-level" uncertainty is necessarily value-laden, and thus must be treated as irreducibly subjective. Nevertheless, formal methods of uncertainty analysis should still be employed for the purpose of clarifying policy debates. I argue that such debates are best informed by models which integrate objective features with subjective ones. This integrated subjectivism is illustrated with a case study from the literature on monetary policy. The paper concludes with some morals for the use of models in determining climate policy
Keywords uncertainty  modeling  public policy  economics  decision theory  climate science
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Reprint years 2014
DOI 10.1016/j.shpsa.2014.05.004
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