Authors
Alistair Isaac
University of Edinburgh
Abstract
A question at the intersection of scientific modeling and public choice is how to deal with uncertainty about model predictions. This "high-level" uncertainty is necessarily value-laden, and thus must be treated as irreducibly subjective. Nevertheless, formal methods of uncertainty analysis should still be employed for the purpose of clarifying policy debates. I argue that such debates are best informed by models which integrate objective features with subjective ones. This integrated subjectivism is illustrated with a case study from the literature on monetary policy. The paper concludes with some morals for the use of models in determining climate policy
Keywords uncertainty  modeling  public policy  economics  decision theory  climate science
Categories No categories specified
(categorize this paper)
Reprint years 2014
DOI 10.1016/j.shpsa.2014.05.004
Options
Edit this record
Mark as duplicate
Export citation
Find it on Scholar
Request removal from index
Revision history

Download options

PhilArchive copy


Upload a copy of this paper     Check publisher's policy     Papers currently archived: 70,079
Through your library

References found in this work BETA

The Foundations of Statistics.Leonard J. Savage - 1954 - Wiley Publications in Statistics.
The Foundations of Statistics.Leonard J. Savage - 1956 - Philosophy of Science 23 (2):166-166.
The Foundations of Statistics.Leonard J. Savage - 1959 - Synthese 11 (1):86-89.

View all 17 references / Add more references

Citations of this work BETA

Add more citations

Similar books and articles

Lifetime Uncertainty and Time Preference.Nicolas Drouhin - 2001 - Theory and Decision 51 (2/4):145-172.
Rationalizable Irrationalities of Choice.Peter Dayan - 2014 - Topics in Cognitive Science 6 (2):204-228.
Uncertainty Arguments in Environmental Issues.Paul B. Thompson - 1986 - Environmental Ethics 8 (1):59-75.
Revealed Preference and Expected Utility.Stephen A. Clark - 2000 - Theory and Decision 49 (2):159-174.
Inequality and Political Consensus.Hans Peter Grüner - 2009 - Theory and Decision 67 (3):239-265.

Analytics

Added to PP index
2014-07-17

Total views
60 ( #190,086 of 2,506,110 )

Recent downloads (6 months)
1 ( #416,984 of 2,506,110 )

How can I increase my downloads?

Downloads

My notes