The psychology of dynamic probability judgment: order effect, normative theories, and experimental methodology

Mind and Society 6 (1):53-66 (2007)
The Bayesian model is used in psychology as the reference for the study of dynamic probability judgment. The main limit induced by this model is that it confines the study of revision of degrees of belief to the sole situations of revision in which the universe is static (revising situations). However, it may happen that individuals have to revise their degrees of belief when the message they learn specifies a change of direction in the universe, which is considered as changing with time (updating situations). We analyze the main results of the experimental literature with regard to elementary qualitative properties of these two situations of revision. First, the order effect phenomenon is confronted with the commutative property. Second, an apparent new phenomenon is presented: the redundancy effect that is confronted with the idempotence property. Finally, results obtained in this kind of experimental situations are reinterpreted in the light of pragmatic analysis
Keywords dynamic probability judgment - Bayesian coherence - Revising - Updating -linguistic pragmatics - order effect
Categories (categorize this paper)
DOI 10.1007/s11299-006-0025-z
 Save to my reading list
Follow the author(s)
Edit this record
My bibliography
Export citation
Find it on Scholar
Mark as duplicate
Request removal from index
Revision history
Download options
Our Archive

Upload a copy of this paper     Check publisher's policy     Papers currently archived: 29,827
Through your library
References found in this work BETA
Causality: Models, Reasoning, and Inference.Judea Pearl - 2000 - Cambridge University Press.
Relevance.D. Sperber & D. Wilson - 1995 - Blackwell.
Truth and Probability.F. P. Ramsey - 2010 - In Antony Eagle (ed.), Philosophy of Probability: Contemporary Readings. Routledge. pp. 52-94.
A Mathematical Theory of Evidence.Glenn Shafer - 1976 - Princeton University Press.

View all 24 references / Add more references

Citations of this work BETA

Add more citations

Similar books and articles
Mathematical Proof and Experimental Proof.Sr Copeland - 1966 - Philosophy of Science 33 (4):303-.
The Challenge of Representative Design in Psychology and Economics.Robin M. Hogarth - 2005 - Journal of Economic Methodology 12 (2):253-263.
Revising Beliefs Towards the Truth.Ilkka Niiniluoto - 2011 - Erkenntnis 75 (2):165-181.
Dynamic Logic for Belief Revision.Johan van Benthem - 2007 - Journal of Applied Non-Classical Logics 17 (2):129-155.
Belief Revision in a Temporal Framework.Giacomo Bonanno - 2008 - In Krzysztof Apt & Robert van Rooij (eds.), New Perspectives on Games and Interaction. Amsterdam University Press.
Hidden Assumptions in the Dutch Book Argument.C. Waidacher - 1997 - Theory and Decision 43 (3):293-312.
Probabilistic Causal Interaction.Ellery Eells - 1986 - Philosophy of Science 53 (1):52-64.
Added to PP index

Total downloads
9 ( #500,512 of 2,211,268 )

Recent downloads (6 months)
1 ( #380,735 of 2,211,268 )

How can I increase my downloads?

Monthly downloads
My notes
Sign in to use this feature