Abstract
Complexity science has witnessed a number of advances since the publication of Jervis's System Effects. These advances better allow us to untangle the messy elements in a system and predict sets of likely outcomes. However, just because a system is complex doesn't mean that all the ideas relating to complexity?such as agent-based modeling, path dependency, tipping points, between-class versus within-class effects, and networks?are necessarily relevant. One of our tasks is to determine whether they are?and, if so, their implications. As examples, we use China's role in the formation of the United States housing bubble; the federal government's bailout of AIG and Bear Stearns but not Lehman Brothers; and China's failure to experience a regime change such as the Middle East's Arab Spring
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DOI 10.1080/08913811.2012.767045
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References found in this work BETA

Complexity: A Guided Tour.Melanie Mitchell - 2009 - Oxford University Press.
Weak Emergence.Mark A. Bedau - 1997 - Philosophical Perspectives 11:375-399.
Weak Emergence.Mark A. Bedau - 1997 - Noûs 31 (S11):375-399.
Phase Transitions.Ricard V. Solé - 2011 - Princeton University Press.

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Citations of this work BETA

System Effects and the Problem of Prediction.Jeffrey Friedman - 2012 - Critical Review: A Journal of Politics and Society 24 (3):291-312.
Jervis on Complexity Theory.Richard A. Posner - 2012 - Critical Review: A Journal of Politics and Society 24 (3):367-373.
System Effects Revisited.Robert Jervis - 2012 - Critical Review: A Journal of Politics and Society 24 (3):393-415.

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