Bayes' theorem

Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy (2008)
Authors
James M. Joyce
University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
Abstract
Bayes' Theorem is a simple mathematical formula used for calculating conditional probabilities. It figures prominently in subjectivist or Bayesian approaches to epistemology, statistics, and inductive logic. Subjectivists, who maintain that rational belief is governed by the laws of probability, lean heavily on conditional probabilities in their theories of evidence and their models of empirical learning. Bayes' Theorem is central to these enterprises both because it simplifies the calculation of conditional probabilities and because it clarifies significant features of subjectivist position. Indeed, the Theorem's central insight — that a hypothesis is confirmed by any body of data that its truth renders probable — is the cornerstone of all subjectivist methodology
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Responses to Fitelson, Sansom, and Sarkar. [REVIEW]Elliott Sober - 2011 - Philosophy and Phenomenological Research 83 (3):692-704.

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