Philosophy of Science 45 (2):250-272 (1978)

In this paper a model is presented for the growth of knowledge in a dynamic scientific system. A system which is in some respects an idealization of a Lakatosian research program. The kinematics of the system is described in terms of two probabilistic variables, one of which is related to the evolution of its theoretical component and the other--to the growth of the empirical component. It is shown that when the empirical growth is faster than the theoretical growth the posterior probability of the theoretical component increases. Thus, empirical progressiveness of a research program, as explicated in this model, is accompanied by an increase in the degree of confirmation. In such a case the system grows in a Popperian-like spirit, while learning from experience in a Bayesian manner
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DOI 10.1086/288799
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References found in this work BETA

Conjectures and Refutations.Karl R. Popper - 1968 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 19 (2):159-168.
The Logical Foundations of Probability.Rudolf Carnap - 1950 - Journal of Philosophy 60 (13):362-364.
Slightly More Realistic Personal Probability.Ian Hacking - 1967 - Philosophy of Science 34 (4):311-325.

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Towards an Evolutionary Pragmatics of Science.Asher Idan & Aharon Kantorovich - 1985 - Zeitschrift Für Allgemeine Wissenschaftstheorie 16 (1):47-66.

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