A Dutch book for CDT thirders

Synthese 198 (12):11925-11941 (2020)

Abstract

I give a Dutch book argument for CDT thirders in the context of a generalized Sleeping Beauty scenario. In combination with the Briggs (2010) Dutch book for EDT thirders, this amounts to a purely decision-theoretic argument for halfing in Sleeping Beauty. In combination with the Hitchcock (2004) Dutch book for CDT halfers, this amounts to a Dutch book argument against CDT. The combined Dutch book against CDT invites a plausible diagnosis of the reasons for CDT’s failure: CDT is incompatible with the Dutch book requirement because it allows the values of epistemically impossible outcomes influence one’s decision.

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Theodore Korzukhin
Cornell University

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