Informal Logic 24 (1):41-70 (2004)

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Abstract
Bayesian reasoning has been applied formally to statistical inference, machine learning and analysing scientific method. Here I apply it informally to more common forms of inference, namely natural language arguments. I analyse a variety of traditional fallacies, deductive, inductive and causal, and find more merit in them than is generally acknowledged. Bayesian principles provide a framework for understanding ordinary arguments which is well worth developing
Keywords Bayesian reasoning, logical fallacies, statistical fallacies, causal fallacies, teaching probabilistic reasoning
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Logical Foundations of Probability.Rudolf Carnap - 1950 - Chicago]University of Chicago Press.
Inference to the Best Explanation.Peter Lipton - 1993 - Routledge/Taylor and Francis Group.

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