The Cost of Prediction

Abstract

This paper examines a looming reproducibility crisis in the core of the hard sciences. Namely, it concentrates on molecular modeling and simulation (MMS), a family of methods that predict properties of substances through computing interactions on a molecular level and that is widely popular in physics, chemistry, materials science, and engineering. The paper argues that in order to make quantitative predictions, sophisticated models are needed which have to be evaluated with complex simulation procedures that amalgamate theoretical, technological, and social factors – leading to problems with reproducibility. Thus, for methodological reasons, the predictive success causes a reproducibility problem.

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Johannes Lenhard
RPTU, Kaiserslautern

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References found in this work

The Structure of Scientific Revolutions.Thomas S. Kuhn - 1962 - Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press. Edited by Ian Hacking.
Science in the age of computer simulation.Eric B. Winsberg - 2010 - Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

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