Authors
Elisabeth Lloyd
Indiana University, Bloomington
Abstract
I propose a distinct type of robustness, which I suggest can support a confirmatory role in scientific reasoning, contrary to the usual philosophical claims. In model robustness, repeated production of the empirically successful model prediction or retrodiction against a background of independentlysupported and varying model constructions, within a group of models containing a shared causal factor, may suggest how confident we can be in the causal factor and predictions/retrodictions, especially once supported by a variety of evidence framework. I present climate models of greenhouse gas global warming of the 20th Century as an example, and emphasize climate scientists’ discussions of robust models and causal aspects. The account is intended as applicable to a broad array of sciences that use complex modeling techniques.
Keywords Robustness  model confirmation  scientific inference  climate models  variety of evidence  causal attribution
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DOI 10.1016/j.shpsa.2014.12.002
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References found in this work BETA

The Scientific Image.William Demopoulos & Bas C. van Fraassen - 1982 - Philosophical Review 91 (4):603.
Scientific Perspectivism.Ronald N. Giere - 2006 - University of Chicago Press.

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Citations of this work BETA

Variety of Evidence.Jürgen Landes - 2020 - Erkenntnis 85 (1):183-223.
Abductively Robust Inference.Finnur Dellsén - 2017 - Analysis 77 (1):20-29.

View all 29 citations / Add more citations

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