Theory and Decision 85 (1):99-116 (2018)

Authors
Aidan Lyon
University of Maryland, College Park
Michael Morreau
University of Tromsø
Abstract
A computer simulation is used to study collective judgements that an expert panel reaches on the basis of qualitative probability judgements contributed by individual members. The simulated panel displays a strong and robust crowd wisdom effect. The panel's performance is better when members contribute precise probability estimates instead of qualitative judgements, but not by much. Surprisingly, it doesn't always hurt for panel members to interpret the probability expressions differently. Indeed, coordinating their understandings can be much worse.
Keywords Collective wisdom  Scoring and grading  Social epistemology  Epistemic Diversity  Linguistic Diversity
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DOI 10.1007/s11238-017-9643-7
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Social Choice Theory.Christian List - 2013 - In Edward N. Zalta (ed.), The Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy. Metaphysics Research Lab, Stanford University.

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