Behavioral and Brain Sciences 20 (4):778-778 (1997)

In base rate problems the estimated probability must equal the base rate only where random sampling is assumed. Otherwise there is uncertainty over and above that which can be included in any probability model and inductive inference is involved. Subjects should use base rates to the extent that the problem suggests a simple random sampling model.
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DOI 10.1017/s0140525x97261649
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