Pragmatically before ecologically valid tasks

Behavioral and Brain Sciences 20 (4):778-779 (1997)
Abstract
Most tasks used to demonstrate the base rate fallacy are ambiguous about the independence of the data. The removal of such ambiguities from the texts (by means of a clear reference class for the probabilities) is a necessary condition and has a considerable effect on the use of the base rate in classical probabilistic tasks. Some comments are offered on the frequentist phrasing of such and, more generally, their ecological validity.
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DOI 10.1017/S0140525X97271645
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