Logical questions behind the lottery and preface paradoxes: lossy rules for uncertain inference

Synthese 186 (2):511-529 (2012)
We reflect on lessons that the lottery and preface paradoxes provide for the logic of uncertain inference. One of these lessons is the unreliability of the rule of conjunction of conclusions in such contexts, whether the inferences are probabilistic or qualitative; this leads us to an examination of consequence relations without that rule, the study of other rules that may nevertheless be satisfied in its absence, and a partial rehabilitation of conjunction as a ‘lossy’ rule. A second lesson is the possibility of rational inconsistent belief; this leads us to formulate criteria for deciding when an inconsistent set of beliefs may reasonably be retained.
Keywords Lottery paradox  Preface paradox  Uncertain inference  Conjunction  Rationality  Inconsistency  Lossy rules
Categories (categorize this paper)
DOI 10.1007/s11229-011-9997-2
 Save to my reading list
Follow the author(s)
Edit this record
My bibliography
Export citation
Find it on Scholar
Mark as duplicate
Request removal from index
Revision history
Download options
Our Archive

Upload a copy of this paper     Check publisher's policy     Papers currently archived: 30,749
Through your library
References found in this work BETA
A Primer of Probability Logic.Ernest Adams - 1998 - Stanford: Csli Publications.
The Paradox of the Preface.David C. Makinson - 1965 - Analysis 25 (6):205-207.

View all 23 references / Add more references

Citations of this work BETA

Add more citations

Similar books and articles
Added to PP index

Total downloads
92 ( #58,502 of 2,198,095 )

Recent downloads (6 months)
4 ( #61,684 of 2,198,095 )

How can I increase my downloads?

Monthly downloads
My notes
Sign in to use this feature