Synthese 197 (3):1343-1355 (2020)

Randall G. McCutcheon
University of Memphis
Van Fraassen's Judy Benjamin problem asks how one ought to update one's credence in A upon receiving evidence of the sort ``A may or may not obtain, but B is k times likelier than C'', where {A,B,C} is a partition. Van Fraassen's solution, in the limiting case of increasing k, recommends a posterior converging to the probability of A conditional on A union B, where P is one's prior probability function. Grove and Halpern, and more recently Douven and Romeijn, have argued that one ought to leave credence in A unchanged, i.e. fixed at P(A). We argue that while the former approach is superior, it brings about a Reflection violation due in part to neglect of a ``regression to the mean'' phenomenon, whereby when C is eliminated by random evidence that leaves A and B alive, the ratio P(A):P(B) ought to drift in the direction of 1:1.
Keywords Judy Benjamin Problem  Jeffrey Conditionalization  Conditionalization
Categories (categorize this paper)
Reprint years 2020
DOI 10.1007/s11229-018-1761-4
Edit this record
Mark as duplicate
Export citation
Find it on Scholar
Request removal from index
Revision history

Download options

Our Archive
Through your library

References found in this work BETA

Belief and the Will.Bas C. van Fraassen - 1984 - Journal of Philosophy 81 (5):235-256.
The Logic of Decision.Brian Skyrms - 1965 - Journal of Symbolic Logic 50 (1):247-248.
Stopping to Reflect.M. J. Schervish, T. Seidenfeld & J. B. Kadane - 2004 - Journal of Philosophy 101 (6):315-322.
A Problem for Relative Information Minimizers in Probability Kinematics.Bas C. van Fraassen - 1981 - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 32 (4):375-379.

View all 6 references / Add more references

Citations of this work BETA

No citations found.

Add more citations

Similar books and articles

Entropy and Insufficient Reason: A Note on the Judy Benjamin Problem.Anubav Vasudevan - forthcoming - British Journal for the Philosophy of Science:axy013.
On Indeterminate Updating of Credences.Leendert Huisman - 2014 - Philosophy of Science 81 (4):537-557.
Judy Benjamin is a Sleeping Beauty.Luc Bovens - 2010 - Analysis 70 (1):23-26.
Belief Update Methods and Rules—Some Comparisons.Leszek Wronski - 2016 - Ergo: An Open Access Journal of Philosophy 3.
William Rothman's Vertigo.Rex Butler - 2014 - Film-Philosophy 18 (1):35-49.
Review of Walter Benjamin’s “Radio Benjamin”. [REVIEW]Anna-Verena Nosthoff - 2014 - Invisible Culture. An Electronic Journal for Visual Culture 22:1–3.
Understanding Regression.James Woodward - 1988 - PSA: Proceedings of the Biennial Meeting of the Philosophy of Science Association 1988:255 - 269.


Added to PP index

Total views
213 ( #37,678 of 2,324,607 )

Recent downloads (6 months)
35 ( #18,881 of 2,324,607 )

How can I increase my downloads?


My notes