The third possibility

Mind 73 (291):430-433 (1964)
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Expecting the unexpected.Avishai Margalit & Maya Bar-Hillel - 1983 - Philosophia 13 (3-4):263-288.
The Solution to the Surprise Exam Paradox.Ken Levy - 2009 - Southern Journal of Philosophy 47 (2):131-158.

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